-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Diggs remains among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He has now stacked three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, and eight receiving scores. Diggs was the WR6 in fantasy points per game while also ranking sixth in open rate (per ESPN analytics). He also finished top-ten in target share (tenth), red zone targets (fourth), and yards per route run (third). Diggs could begin to slow down as he's entering his age 30 season, but I fully believe he has at least 1-2 more electric seasons as a top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver before the cliff arrives.
Lamb finished with the quietest 100 receptions (107) and 1,300 receiving yards (1,359) season in recent memory as the WR7 in fantasy. The "CeeDee Lamb alpha season" we have been waiting for finally came to fruition. He was seventh in target per route run rate and sixth in yards per route run as he broke out as one of the league's elite talents. Even with Mike McCarthy calling plays in 2023, Lamb remains primed for another WR1 campaign.
The Vikings WR finished first in fantasy points scored, 10th in target share (28%), third in yards per route run (2.70) and second in expected fantasy points per game (15.9) in 2022. His 11.1 expected TDs and 26 red-zone targets tied for first among all WRs. With Adam Thielen's TD presence gone - and Jefferson coming off a curiously low 8-TD year (two fewer than in 2021) - I expect him to score inside the double-digits in 2023.
In just two years, Chase has proven to be among the elite wide receivers in Fantasy Football. But should he be the first receiver drafted? While he ranks among the top 12 in basic and high-level receiving stats over the past two years, including targets per game (9.03) and end-zone targets (27), he is behind Justin Jefferson in nearly every one. About the only way Chase could catch Jefferson is with a higher target rate, which would mean he'd have to dominate in Cincinnati while Jefferson loses serious volume in Minnesota. That's an unlikely combination. Still, Chase should finish as the second-best receiver in Fantasy, just as he did last season among WRs who played 10-plus games. Expect the Bengal to be taken within the first three picks in all non-Superflex/two-QB PPR format drafts this summer (maybe the first six picks in a non-PPR).
Brown's move to Philadelphia in 2022 was extremely successful, and he should be considered a top-10 Fantasy receiver in all leagues this year. Brown is worth drafting as early as Round 2 in all formats. Last year, Brown teamed with Jalen Hurts and set career highs in targets (145), catches (88) and receiving yards (1,496), and he matched his career high in touchdowns (11). His 17.6 PPR points per game was also a career high. Brown has plenty of competition for targets with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, but Brown is still the alpha of this receiving corps. He should have another dominant campaign if healthy, and Brown should come off the board in all leagues as early as No. 15 overall.
Tyreek Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to South Beach. Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game, accumulating five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). Hill amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share (second-best) while ranking first in yards per route run. If the Dolphins scheme him up more targets in the red zone next season (40th among wide receivers), he could finish as the WR1 overall.
Nobody boasted a higher target share than Davante Adams in 2022. The ex-Packers WR showed the entire world he didn't need Aaron Rodgers, hanging a league-leading 32.3% target share while finishing third in fantasy points per game (16.8). He even showed that he could thrive without Derek Carr, catching 7 balls for 153 yards and 2 TDs in a Week 17 contest with Jarrett Stidham under center. The obvious concerns about Adams are his age (will be 31 in December) and how he will gel with injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo as his new QB. But Adams showed zero signs of aging with the league's fifth-highest yards per route run (2.45) as PFF's second-highest graded WR. I also don't believe the fit with Jimmy G is as poor as many may lead on. Garoppolo is an accurate quarterback - 6th in completion rate last season - which should allow Adams to vacuum up targets and add yardage after the catch. I also fully expect any QB issues to be mitigated to some extent by sheer volume, as the depth chart is barren behind Adams and Jakobi Meyers for targets. Hunter Renfrow is expected to be traded or cut by June 1st.
Cooper Kupp was originally in the S Tier of my 2023 WR rankings, but I moved him down in regard to concerns about Matthew Stafford's health. However, I still think Kupp will produce at an extremely high level if he and Stafford are healthy. Last year he led all WRs in points per game (18.4) while commanding the league's second-highest target share (31.3%) before his injury.