-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Despite dealing a shoulder injury for much of the season and Dak Prescott limited to eight games, CeeDee Lamb still finished as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in target share (24%), 12th in receiving yards per game (74.6), 16th in yards per route run (2.36), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.107, per Fantasy Points Data). With George Pickens added to the offense, a healthy Dak Prescott returning to the huddle, and Lamb back to full strength he has WR1 overall upside again in 2025.
Jefferson has been the model of consistency. He has never finished lower than WR9 in fantasy points per game since his rookie season, and he's been inside the top five in this category in each of the last four seasons. With Sam Darnold at the helm last year, Jefferson was the WR3 in fantasy points per game as he ranked third in target share, fourth in raw target volume, fifth in red zone targets, and second in receiving yards per game. Jefferson also excelled on a per-route basis, ranking sixth in yards per route run and 18th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Jefferson still has WR1 overall upside this season if J.J. McCarthy can prove to be an upgrade over Sam Darnold for the Vikings in 2025.
Last year, Ja'Marr Chase finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game, crushing the competition. He ranked first in targets (175), red zone targets (36), total touchdowns (17), receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and yards after the catch (787). If those numbers weren't enough, Chase also ranked 14th in yards per route run and 19th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It was an extraordinary season, and Chase is in a good position to attempt to match those numbers in 2025. The Bengals' defense remains a work in process, and Joe Burrow will be tossing Chase the rock. Volume and efficiency shouldn't be a problem for Chase in 2025 in his quest to repeat as the WR1 overall.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency as a top-ten fantasy wideout in each of the last three seasons (WR10, WR4, WR4). Obviously, talent is fueling this, but back-to-back seasons as a top-five option at wide receiver have also been aided by elite red zone usage, as he has averaged 11.5 receiving touchdowns per season while ranking second and third in red zone targets. I don't see that changing in 2025, so St. Brown could easily be headed for a third consecutive top-five fantasy wideout campaign. Last year, among 85 qualifying wideouts, St. Brown ranked ninth in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, and fourth in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). St. Brown is one of the safest fantasy football picks you can make.
Last year, Brown still managed to finish as a WR1 (WR12) despite being locked inside a passing offense that finished with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL (448). Brown remains an elite receiving option. Last year, he ranked second in target share (31.1%), fifth in receiving yards per game (83), second in yards per route run (3.22), second in first-read share (42.1%), and second in first downs per route run (0.152, per Fantasy Points Data). Brown's insane per-route efficiency has been a calling card during his career. I don't expect much if any, drop-off from that this season. Despite his amazing talent, Brown was 25th in targets per game. Philly's passing volume will naturally regress, so we should see more volume for Brown and the rest of these pass catchers in 2025. The only question is how much. Brown remains a locked-in WR1 for this season, with his ceiling and floor tied to Philly's passing volume.
Breaking news! This just in! Puka Nacua remains REALLY good at football. In the nine games last year that he played at least 50% of the snaps, he drew a 34.9% target share, produced 104.9 receiving yards per game, had 3.88 yards per route run, commanded a 44.6% first-read share, and churned out 0.185 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 85 qualifying wide receivers last season, Nacua would have led ALL wide receivers in EACH of those STATISTICAL CATEGORIES. Oh, and by the way, he had 21.8 fantasy points per game in that sample, which would have ranked second behind only Ja'Marr Chase. Nacua remains a game-changing pick in drafts this season who, despite the addition of Davante Adams, still has WR1 overall upside.
The LSU product had a historic rookie season, finishing as WR7 overall and in points per game through 17 weeks (14.6). Malik Nabers broke Puka Nacua's rookie WR record for receptions with 109 catches for over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs in just 15 games played. The usage was unmatched. First in target share (32%), targets per game (11.1) and expected fantasy points per game (20.3). At least the trio of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and rookie Jaxson Dart should improve the QB production in 2025.
Overall, last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets. As good as those numbers are, they still underrate his upside in 2025 if he can continue what he did down the stretch last year. In Weeks 13-18 last season, he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 72 qualifying receivers, he was fourth in target share (31.6%), seventh in yards per route run (2.78), fifth in receiving yards per game (98.8), and 17th in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data). Thomas Jr. posted those numbers with Mac Jones tossing him passes. What do we think he'll do in 2025 with Liam Coen at the controls and Trevor Lawrence back? It could be a magical season for Thomas Jr.