-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
CeeDee Lamb emerged as a top fantasy WR in 2023, finishing as the top WR in half-PPR formats with 335 fantasy points and averaging 19.7 points per game. He hauled in 135 receptions for over 1,700 yards and 14 total touchdowns. Lamb's dominance extended to red-zone targets, a key predictor of elite WR1 fantasy seasons, but regression may be expected in 2024 due to Dallas's red-zone usage and pass-to-rush TD ratio trends. The Cowboys had a negative RZ pass rate over expectation in 2023. Over the last 12 seasons, no WR that has led the league in red-zone targets has finished higher than WR3 the following season.
Justin Jefferson showcased his elite talent in 2023, finishing 5th in points per game despite missing seven games and losing starting QB Kirk Cousins. With 68 receptions for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns, he commanded a 28% target share and excelled even without Cousins on the field, averaging 18.4 points per game in the final stretch. Before Cousins' injury, he led all WRs in fantasy points scored (21.7 per game). Heading into 2024, Jefferson's ability to thrive regardless of the quarterback situation positions him as one of the NFL's top receivers, supported by the offensive infrastructure set up by Kevin O'Connell.
Brandon Aiyuk joined Samuel as the only key offensive players to suit up for Sunday's inconsequential regular-season finale. Both starting wideouts saw limited run with three touches apiece as San Francisco tried to preserve its core of superstars ahead of the team's upcoming first playoff contest. Samuel will finish the regular season with 1,085 combined yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns while appearing in 15 games. The hybrid superstar's efforts produced the only campaign to rival his incredible 2021 season from a fantasy perspective. Expect Samuel to see more action when the 49ers resume play in the NFC divisional round on either Jan. 20 or Jan. 21.
Ja'Marr Chase emerges as the cornerstone of the Bengals offense in 2024, coming off a stellar season with 100 receptions and over 1,200 yards. Despite finishing as the WR13 in 2023, his true potential shone with Joe Burrow, averaging 16.2 points per game and ranking as the WR6 from Weeks 1-10. With his consistent red zone presence, leading the NFL in red zone targets per game over the last two seasons, Chase is poised for WR1 status, a position historically correlated with dominating red zone opportunities.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a standout season, finishing third among WRs with 247.5 fantasy points and averaging 16.5 points per game. He showcased his reliability with 112 receptions for 1,371 yards and 9 touchdowns, earning a 12.2 yards per reception average. St. Brown commanded a 30% target share and 34% air yards share. His impressive performance earned him a lucrative 4-year, $120 million contract extension, making him the highest paid WR in the NFL at the time.
Mike Evans ranked as the WR4 in 2023, totaling 239.3 points (14.4 per game, WR8). He caught 76 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns. He re-signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers, keeping his talents in Tampa Bay. He will be 31 in August. Evans has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his 10 Bucs seasons. His 2023 felt like a rebound, but that was mostly because of bad TD luck in 2022. Evans did lead the league with 13 TD catches in 2023, his third season among the past four with at least 13 scores. His 15.9 yards per catch marked his highest average since 2019 and beat his career average. Betting against Evans hasn't worked very well to date.
Brown wasn't expected to play in this playoff game, and this just makes it official. Expect DeVonta Smith to see a high target share, along with Dallas Goedert. The Eagles and WR A.J. Brown agreed to a three-year extension worth $96 million, which briefly made Brown the league's highest-paid WR. Brown is now under contract with Philadelphia through the 2029 campaign. Brown is a consensus top-six wide receiver worthy of a selection in the first round of PPR leagues. While the rest of the Eagles offense struggled at times, Brown was their consistent alpha, setting a career-high with 106 receptions. The only downside was his low touchdown total, but we expect that was just a blip, not something that will carry over into 2024. His 2,883 receiving yards since he arrived in Philadelphia trail only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb and his long-term contract ties him to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles for the foreseeable future. Dynasty managers should expect the 27-year-old to be one of the best wide receivers in football for at least the next three seasons.
D.J. Moore was excellent in his debut season in Chicago, finishing as the WR6 averaging 14.0 points/game. He showcased his dominance with a 43% air yards share and a top-10 target share at 29%. Moore's rapport with quarterback Justin Fields yielded high-end WR1 production, averaging 16.8 points per game over 12 games. However, with Fields replaced by rookie Caleb Williams and the addition of WR Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, Moore's fantasy upside in 2024 may face challenges.
The keys to Nacua's breakout last year were his outstanding route running, his timing with Matthew Stafford and his penchant for taking advantage of both Cooper Kupp's absences and Kupp's ability to draw double coverage. Understandably, Nacua's numbers were better without Kupp (13.0 targets and 23.8 PPR points per game in Weeks 1 through 4) than with Kupp (8.5 targets and 15.7 PPR points per game from Week 5 on). That should set a realistic expectation on what to count on from Nacua in his second season, which frankly is still quite excellent considering the lack of elite-tier receivers in Fantasy. It helps that the Rams offense might be even better this year considering their O-line enhancements and Stafford entering the season healthy. Not only should Nacua get picked well before Kupp, but he's in the conversation as a late-Round 1 pick in PPR redraft leagues; he's more of a Round 2 pick in half- and non-PPR.
Tyreek Hill had a stellar fantasy season, finishing second overall among WRs with nearly 300 fantasy points and averaging just shy of 20 points per game. He showcased his deep-threat ability with over 1,700 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging a league-leading 3.72 yards per route run. Despite turning 30, Hill's performance suggests he's still at the top of his game.