-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
Gibson lands in New England on a three-year deal, which is essentially a puffed-up one-year deal. New England can get out of Gibson's contract after one season if he doesn't pan out as Rhamondre Stevenson's running mate this upcoming season. Last season, in a breather role, Gibson ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Gibson has displayed explosive playmaking when utilized properly, as well as also demonstrating the ability to be a volume rusher when it has been called for. Gibson should work in tandem with Stevenson as the pass-catching component of this backfield, but if Stevenson falters out the gate, don't be surprised if Gibson takes over the lead role. Gibson is an interesting RB3 with upside in 2024.
Dowdle will fight Ezekiel Elliott for work in Dallas this season. Dowdle has long been a fav player of mine. Last year, among 53 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt while also having the 23rd lowest stuff rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Could Dowdle be the next Alexander Mattison? It's possible, but I'm willing to make the bet that he surprises people in 2024. He's an RB3/4 who could easily post RB2 numbers if he runs away from Elliott with the job.
Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn't pretty. Volume wasn't the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it's possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver's early down guy, but don't be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.
With Aaron Jones now in Minnesota, Ty Chandler will be a backup for the Vikings in 2024. In Weeks 15-18, he played at least 53% of the snaps in every game, averaging 15.3 touches and 81.8 total yards. Chandler topped 90 total yards once in that four-game span, and his per-touch efficiency was in the toilet overall. Among 49 qualifying backs, Chandler ranked 47th last season in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Chandler had hope entering this offseason that he had hopefully done enough in 2023 to have a shot at the starter's role, but sadly, that isn't in the cards for next season.
Jaylen Warren was one of the most explosive and elusive backs in the NFL. This sounds like a hyperbolic statement I know, but it really isn't. Last season, he finished third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If these numbers don't jump off the page, then I don't know what else to tell you. Oh wait, he was also 12th in yards per route run and fifth in targets per route run. Warren is a stud and outperformed Najee Harris in nearly every metric. While he finished as the RB29 in fantasy points per game, that doesn't tell the entire story. Warren was an RB2 or better in weekly scoring in 50% of his games. Warren will still have to split a backfield this season with Harris, but if you're betting on talent (which you should be), there aren't many better options to grab in drafts that have his type of upside if anything were to happen to Harris.
Moss parlayed his starting stint last year with the Colts into a possible starting gig with the Bengals. In the seven games he started and played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Moss should handle the early downs in Cincinnati this season after ranking 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Chase Brown could eat into his pass game work as Moss was only 41st in yards per route run and 48th in targets per route run. Even if his passing game usage is capped, being the early down back on one of the league's best offenses still puts him in the RB2/3 conversation.
RIP Tyjae Spears RB1 szn. It was fun while it lasted, but Tony Pollard's arrival has kiboshed that. That doesn't mean Tyjae Spears can't be 2021 Tony Pollard to Tony Pollard in Tennessee. Spears operated as discount De'Von Achane last season, ranking fifth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He proved that he can be a three-down explosive play monster as well, ranking seventh in target share, 10th in TPRR, and 17th in YPRR. If the Titans trot out an offense with an above-average neutral rushing rate and Spears can continue his insane efficiency, he will remain a strong RB3 who could finish as a low-end RB2 if this offense surprises people.
Injuries decimated Kendre Miller's rookie season. He was limited to only eight games played, and he crossed the 30% snap mark only three times. Miller posted interesting/borderline impressive per-touch numbers when he got opportunities, with a 24% missed tackle rate and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). We'll see how much work he can siphon off from Alvin Kamara this season, but don't be surprised if he can eat into his work and carve out a 40-50% snap role weekly. He does have to contend with Jamaal Williams as Kamara's understudy, so it's not a clear path to success. Miller is still an intriguing late-round pick/RB4 for 2024. Heading into the 2024 season now healthy, should provide Miller some opportunity that will pleasantly surprise fantasy managers willing to take a shot.
Davis should already be considered the favorite for the RB2 job with the Bills. James Cook will still lead this backfield and likely gobble up most (possibly all) of the passing game work. Davis has a three-down skillset, but his pass-game chops are not on the same level as Cook's, which makes him worthy of a pick in the double-digit rounds of most redraft leagues. The rookie is a thick back with good speed and a variety of moves in the open field. He showed good receiving chops, catching 32 passes in his final year in college. If Davis' strength and elusiveness earns him a goal line role, it's possible he could become flexworthy in 2023. More likely, he's waiting on an injury to Cook to become Fantasy relevant. In Dynasty, Davis gets dinged because he's an older prospect and seems unlikely to take a starting job away from Cook any time soon. You can consider him as early as Round 3 in rookie drafts.
We expect Allen to win the RB2 job behind Breece Hall, making him worthy of a pick in the double-digit rounds of most redraft leagues. Allen was a true workhorse in college, amassing 3,769 yards from scrimmage and 35 touchdowns in three seasons at Wisconsin. He also won't turn 21 years old until January of 2025. That youth and proven three-down ability should make Allen a popular Dynasty stash even if he's likely stuck behind Breece Hall for the next two seasons. If Hall were to suffer an injury, Allen would have a chance to be a must-start Fantasy running back, assuming he beats out Israel Abanikanda as we expect him to. In rookie drafts you can start looking for Allen in Round 3.
Sixth-round picks aren't always priorities in Fantasy, but Vidal is an exception because of where he landed and the style of play he brings. Under new coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are expected to be a run-first offense with a potentially dominant offensive line. That's good for any hard-nosed, downhill running back who plays for them, and it's precisely the kind of back Vidal is. At Troy, Vidal produced back-to-back seasons with over 1,250 total yards and 10-plus touchdowns, and was also a factor in the passing game (at least 18 grabs per season). He'll compete this preseason with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, both of whom are familiar with this offensive scheme going back to their days in Baltimore, but Edwards is 29 years old and Dobbins is coming back from another season-ending injury. It's not wrong to think that at some point this season Vidal will be the Chargers' lead RB. Drafting him with the expectation to be that guy in September, however, isn't very likely. If you're patient, Vidal is worth a pick after Round 10 in redraft leagues (pass on him if you're not patient). In rookie-only drafts Vidal is a borderline Round 2/3 choice.
Dobbins has been snakebite over the last two years. First, it was the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season. Last year, in Week 1, Dobbins tore his Achilles. I would tread cautiously if you're looking to draft him in early redraft or best ball. Dobbins only carries a 50k dead cap hit if the team decides to move on from him. That said, if he is still available LATE in your draft, he is worth the low-risk roll of the dice, given that he is expected to be healthy headed into training camp and will operate in the Chargers' likely run-friendly offense.