-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Austin Ekeler was a nice surprise when on the field last year. He dealt with two concussions in 2024, which forced him to miss five games, but when active, he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He had some elevated usage in weeks where Brian Robinson Jr. was limited or out, so I think we can project some regression in 2025 if Robinson Jr. can put together a healthy season. Also, the addition of Deebo Samuel could cut into Ekeler's short-area passing game usage. Last year, Ekeler was 11th in target share and third in yards per route run among backs. I expect the target share to dip some. Ekeler is still a decent late-round flex flier.
Mason moves from San Francisco to Minnesota in an offseason trade to become Aaron Jones' running mate/handcuff. Mason sustained a shoulder injury and an ankle injury last year. The bum ankle ultimately ended his season. In the brief six games, he played 64% or more of the snaps as the starter for the 49ers, with an average of 21.3 touches and 111.8 total yards. He was a top-24 fantasy option at the running back position in four of those six outings and an RB1 in 50% of them. Mason finished top six among running backs last year in explosive run rate (second), missed tackles forced per attempt (sixth), and yards after contact per attempt (third, per Fantasy Points Data). Mason is a top-shelf handcuff again this season who could offer some stand-alone value in Minnesota's high-scoring offense.
Bigsby had an awesome sophomore season for Jacksonville, especially considering how his rookie season unfolded. He finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game with eight weeks as the RB36 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. Bigsby wasn't involved in the passing game, having only 12 targets last year. I don't see that changing this season, so he'll need to manufacture fantasy points on the early downs with his legs. He proved he can do that last season. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 21st in explosive run rate and second-best in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Bigsby will have to fight Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten for playing time, but he has the raw talent to carve out a role in this offense in 2025.
Well, the Bears didn't add any threat to Swift's workload before they selected Kyle Monangai in the seventh round of the NFL Draft. Monangai is more of a worry for Roschon Johnson and his standing as RB2 on the depth chart than Swift's. Last year, Swift was the RB21 in fantasy points per game as he soaked up volume. He ranked tenth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, tenth in carries, and 15th in targets among backs. Swift was inefficient every step of the way, ranking outside the top 32 running backs in explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards per touch. Swift looks primed for another volume RB2 season in 2025 behind a reworked offensive line and with Ben Johnson at the helm.
Davis figures to be the primary beneficiary of increased first-team reps as long as Cook's desire for a contract extension keeps him away from the team, though Ty Johnson may also get some extra work. Cook led Buffalo's impressive rushing attack last season with 207 carries for 1,009 yards and a shocking 16 touchdowns (after scoring just twice on the ground in the two years prior) in the regular season, while Davis took a back seat with 113 carries for 442 yards and three scores while playing in all 17 regular-season games. At 220 pounds, Davis boasts a significantly larger frame than Cook or Johnson, which resulted in him facing more stacked boxes and suffering in terms of efficiency compared to his backfield mates. However, his size also makes it conceivable that more of the Bills' scoring opportunities on the ground could swing his way in Year 2.
Jaylen Wright will battle with Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon to be De'Von Achane's backup. He has a leg up entering camp, but we'll have to see if he can secure the job. On a per-carry basis, he did offer some hope with a 5.9% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Wright is a decent final-round pick/best ball dart throw.
Guerendo assumes the direct handcuff role for the 49ers in 2025 after Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell were jettisoned this offseason. Guerenedo earned this role last year when he was asked to assume the starting job. Guerendo had four games last year where he played at least 55% of the snaps, and he averaged 16.7 touches and 101 total yards. In weekly fantasy scoring in those outings, he finished as the RB10, RB2, RB25, and RB11. Guerendo was also an explosive player on a per-touch basis. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked sixth in explosive run rate and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Guerendo is arguably the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football because if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time, we know what we'd be getting weekly, and that's RB1 production.
Well, the Bears didn't address running back early in the draft, but they didn't overlook the position. Chicago selected Monangai in the seventh round of the NFL Draft. Monangai is a squatty pinball back that can handle volume and fight for every blade of grass. He isn't an explosive runner, but he can roll up plenty of chunk gains and handle a ton of volume. The rookie had over 1,200 rushing yards and at least eight touchdowns in back-to-back years to end his college career at Rutgers, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Furthermore, his 66 missed tackles forced were the eighth-most in the draft class, totaling more than Bhayshul Tuten (62) and Quinshon Judkins (35). Last year, he had 25 or more carries in 55% of his games and at least 18 carries in every game. He'll have to beat out Roschon Johnson for RB2 duties behind D'Andre Swift, but that's not impossible. Johnson hasn't exactly set the league on fire so far, and he has had trouble staying on the field (concussions). With the potential for him to fill the David Montgomery role in Smith's offense, Monangai is a decent last-round pick/taxi squad candidate.
Smith was another talented victim of this deep running back class. He dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft, which was surprising. The Chiefs added him to their already overstocked backfield. The Chiefs are no strangers to allowing a seventh-round running back a legit shot at starting (Isiah Pacheco, anyone), so we can't say that Smith has zero shot. As a converted wide receiver, Smith is expected to be a quality receiver out of the backfield. Smith's skill set is different from every other back in this depth chart, and he could easily carve out a stand-alone role as Kansas City’s new Jerick McKinnon.
Yes, Hunter finds himself possibly buried for 2025 behind two veterans, but he also possesses the talent and pathway to surpass one or maybe both of them in the running back pecking order. We have seen the fantasy goodness a running back can have in a Sean McVay offense with Williams being the RB6 and RB7 the last two seasons, despite being one of the least explosive backs in the NFL. Williams also happens to be a free agent after this season. Meanwhile, the Rams thought so much of Blake Corum's rookie season that they addressed running back again this year. Hunter is incredibly talented: he offers the Rams an explosive element that neither Williams nor Corum have. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
McVay doesn’t rotate backs between plays; he does it for series, and when McVay sees a Hunter drive immediately followed by a Williams one, the difference will be clear. Hunter’s role can easily grow as the season goes along and can smash his ADP even without an injury. Hunter could be one of the best values of the fantasy football draft season.