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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Tracy Jr. took over as the Giants' starting back in Week 5 last season and never looked back. Well, he did have some bumps in the road with fumbles. Tracy Jr. finished with the 23rd-most touches among running backs last year, but he was tied for the third-most fumbles at the position. New York decided to address their backfield in the draft with the addition of Cam Skattebo. Skattebo could push Tracy Jr. aside if he's not careful. Skattebo had four fumbles last year in college. Still, four fumbles scattered across 338 collegiate touches is a different conversation than five with 230 touches last year, which is what happened with Tracy Jr. Tracy Jr. was explosive with his touches last year, ranking 16th in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The Giants may roll out a frustrating thunder and lightning committee in 2025, which would be the best-case scenario for Tracy Jr. because I don't see Skattebo going away.
Irving's RB19 fantasy points per game finish last year doesn't do him justice. Last year, after he wrestled the lead job away from Rachaad White, he was lights out as the RB6 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.5 touches and 115.2 total yards. Overall, Irving was fantastic, ranking top-15 in explosive run rate (seventh), missed tackles forced per attempt (third), yards after contact per attempt (fourth), receiving yards per game (14th), and yards per route run (fifth, per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 9 last season, he had 55% of the red zone rushing attempts as the preferred back near the goalline over White and Sean Tucker. Irving should be a strong RB1 again in 2025.
Steele had limited fantasy impact in the 2024 season, scoring 9 fantasy points (0.5 fantasy points per game). His best game was in Week 3, where he scored 7.4 fantasy points with 17 carries for 72 yards. CBS Sports says Steele rushed 56 times for 183 yards and caught 7 passes for 26 yards in 17 games. He primarily played special teams from Week 4 onwards. Steele's fantasy value for the upcoming season is uncertain. He's expected to compete for a roster spot with players like Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, and rookie Brashard Smith. We recommend to hold off on drafting him.
Jaylen Wright will battle with Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon to be De'Von Achane's backup. He has a leg up entering camp, but we'll have to see if he can secure the job. On a per-carry basis, he did offer some hope with a 5.9% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Wright is a decent final-round pick/best ball dart throw.
Braelon Allen is in the running to be Breece Hall's backup for 2025, but we won't be surprised if Isaiah Davis beats him out. Last year, Allen averaged 6.5 touches and 28.3 total yards in backup duty. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked 51st in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Davis, with fewer carries, produced better per-touch numbers last year. I don't mind taking shots on Allen late in deeper leagues, but I wouldn't go crazy with my exposure across multiple leagues.
In 2024, as a rookie for the Broncos, Estime played in 13 games. He had 76 rushing attempts for 310 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and scored 2 rushing touchdowns. He had 5 receptions for 27 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per reception. Estime is expected to carve out a role as a potential short-yardage back for the Broncos. With rookie R.J. Harvey likely to handle the majority of touches for the team, Estime will factor in as a "TD-or-bust" backup. View him as a possible late round flier and nothing more.
Lloyd lost nearly his entire rookie season to injuries. First, he dealt with a hamstring strain during training camp and the preseason. That was followed by an ankle sprain in Week 2 and surgery to treat appendicitis after that. It was an unfortunate and insane runout for the former third-round pick out of USC. Don't forget Lloyd is a ridiculously talented player who ranked 16th and 20th in yards after contact per attempt and fourth and 15th in elusive rating across his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). The Packers didn't add anyone to the backfield in the draft. Lloyd should be considered the favorite for the RB2/handcuff spot on the depth chart for Green Bay behind Josh Jacobs. We'll see how much of a stand-alone role he has this season, but his handcuff value alone is solid.
Well, so much for the Trey Benson takeover in Arizona last year. James Conner said, "I DON'T THINK SO!" Benson was limited to 69 touches (not nice) in his rookie season. Benson could push for more work in year two, but this will remain Conner's backfield as long as he's healthy. Benson's 16% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt last year was nothing to write home about (per Fantasy Points Data). Benson is just another option in a long tier of running back handcuffs. I'm not shying away from him this fantasy draft season, but I'm also not prioritizing him.
Blake Corum never threatened Kyren Williams' workload last year. He could be surpassed on the depth chart this season after the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the draft. Corum's per-touch numbers last year were expectedly disappointing, with only a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.66 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If you're taking shots on this backfield, I would point you in the direction of Williams and Hunter.
Guerendo assumes the direct handcuff role for the 49ers in 2025 after Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell were jettisoned this offseason. Guerenedo earned this role last year when he was asked to assume the starting job. Guerendo had four games last year where he played at least 55% of the snaps, and he averaged 16.7 touches and 101 total yards. In weekly fantasy scoring in those outings, he finished as the RB10, RB2, RB25, and RB11. Guerendo was also an explosive player on a per-touch basis. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked sixth in explosive run rate and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Guerendo is arguably the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football because if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time, we know what we'd be getting weekly, and that's RB1 production.
Ray Davis is another strong handcuff option. Last year, he played a complementary role behind James Cook. He had only two games where he played more than 50% of the snaps. In those two contests, he averaged 20 touches and 108.5 total yards. He was the RB14 in weekly fantasy scoring both weeks. Davis was productive on a per-touch basis, ranking fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If James Cook misses any time, Davis would likely be the leadback for Buffalo in a timeshare with Ty Johnson.