-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF's No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook's favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo's Day 1 starter, with Damien Harris as his main competition. The Harris signing signifies that the second-year pro is locked-in to the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. In 2022, Singletary finished third among all running backs in route participation (57%). Considering Cook's 27% target rate per route run - equal or better than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2022, 5th among all RBs with at least 30 targets - I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in a Bills passing attack that is shrouded with question marks behind Stefon Diggs.
There's no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets' first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and the team believes he could be ready for training camp. Just do whatever you can to get this guy on your fantasy team.
After totaling eight carries over two games as a rookie in 2022, Jerome Ford enters the 2023 preseason as the presumptive backup to Nick Chubb. That role used to go to Kareem Hunt in the past, and usually that meant roughly 10 or 12 touches per game. Ford has good enough size and power with solid speed, plus he proved in college he could reel in targets. Because he hasn't had an opportunity to play yet in the pros, his Fantasy value is awfully cheap, which means as backup running backs go he's a good value with a pick after Round 12, especially for those who take Chubb with an early-round pick.
The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team's bellcow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739) averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce's 154 over this stretch. However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that's likely the cause of Pierce's fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season - just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year. Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce's 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to fill the role of Pierce's primary backup. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than James Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2. Singletary's addition shouldn't completely change the way you view Pierce as it was highly unlikely the team would add zero running backs between now and the start of the season. He's not the worst running back they could have added, but he's hardly a reason to fully fade Pierce for fear that Singletary will carve out a massive role on offense.
Isiah Pacheco's outstanding season as a 2022 7th-round pick should not be understated. From Week 10 through Week 17 (when Pacheco cemented himself as the team's starter), the former Rutgers running back was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Both he and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 scoring RBs over this stretch, but Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing yards to McKinnon's seven touches per game. The aggressive runner capped off his rookie campaign with an impressive Super Bowl outing (15-76-1) that helped clinch victory for Kansas City. Even as a 7th-round pick, Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for KC as he heads into Year 2, with room for his role to grow should he see his pass-game usage expanded. His six-catch game versus the Bengals in the conference championship suggests a boosted receiving role is firmly in his range of outcomes.
Robinson is expected to be the No. 1 running back in Washington, and he's worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy running back/flex with a mid-round pick. Robinson had a quality rookie campaign in 2022, especially after overcoming being the victim of a shooting prior to the start of the season. He missed the first four games, but he scored at least 10 PPR points in six of his final 11 outings. He'll compete with Antonio Gibson for playing time, but Robinson should lead the Commanders in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns if he stays healthy. Where Robinson could struggle is the passing game, as he only had nine catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets in his rookie campaign. Still, Robinson has the potential for 250 carries, and he could end up as a weekly Fantasy starter in all leagues based on his rushing prowess alone. Don't be surprised if Robinson ends up as a top-20 Fantasy running back in 2023.
Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF's No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson - all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF's highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier's strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing - 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA - as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Alas, Allgeier's accomplishments were all for naught as his fantasy value was immediately vaporized after the team decided to draft Bijan Robinson 8th overall. It puts Allgeier into straight backup duties, where he likely will have no fantasy value without a Robinson injury. At least fantasy managers and zero-RB zealots can be assured that Allgeier will produce if/when called upon based on his rookie-year accolades.
Rachaad White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Leonard Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was still better than Fournette on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13). And there was no better display of White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just 5 times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). White's superior season and proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) solidify him as the RB1 moving forward. Tampa Bay released Fournette, signed Chase Edmonds in free agency and added Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent.
Ingram only touched the ball 26 times in 12 games as a rookie and had more plays go for no gain or a loss than he did plays that gained more than five yards. That's why we don't have him ranked as someone who should be drafted. Still, Ingram is the No. 2 back on the Cardinals' depth chart behind 28-year-old James Conner, who has missed six games the past two years and nearly a full season over the past four. It's likely at some point the Cardinals will have little choice but to give Ingram 15 to 20 touches and see what happens. For that reason, he's a strong hold in Dynasty and someone you should expect to be fighting for on the waiver wire at some point this year.
It was Akers who worked as the clear workhorse to end last season in the Rams backfield, so this comes as a slight surprise. It is still early though. It will be more noteworthy if Williams is still seeing first-team reps once training camp rolls around.
We value Walker as a high-end flex who should be drafted some time after the fourth round. In his rookie season, he was the prototypical big-play back. Among players who ran the ball at least 100 times last year, only James Robinson had a higher percentage of his carries go for zero or negative yards. But Walker was also one of eight backs who saw at least 10% of his rushes go for 12-plus yards. The Seahawks brought in Zach Charbonnet to share the load, which should terrify Walker's Fantasy managers. Charbonnet profiles as being better both in the passing game and on short yardage eventually. If both of these backs stay healthy, it's hard to see how either finishes in the top 20 this year. They are both more desirable in Dynasty.
Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren's efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris. But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss anytime, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches.
Strong will compete for a reserve role in New England's backfield this season, but he has minimal Fantasy value at the beginning of the year. He's not worth drafting in most formats. The Patriots will open the season with Rhamondre Stevenson as the lead running back, but Strong could compete with Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor for the No. 2 job. Strong played sparingly as a rookie, but a strong performance in training camp could vault him up the depth chart. And he might have a surprising role in the passing game if things go right. Keep an eye on his performance, and Strong could be someone to add off the waiver wire during the year.
Haskins got some unexpected run in 2022 including a Week 17 start that had Fantasy managers wondering before the week if we were about to witness the next Tim Hightower playoffs waiver wire special, but he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in that opportunity and didn't add much more in the pass game. Haskins is best left undrafted in Fantasy leagues.
The undrafted rookie out of Central Michigan will miss his first game of the season after he managed only one limited practice this week on account of the chest issue. His absence Sunday leaves the Texans without a true fullback, though Houston has four tight ends active who can step in as blockers out of the backfield as needed.