-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
Metchie finished the 2023 regular season with 16 catches (on 30 targets) for 158 yards over 16 games. For much of the season, which was essentially his rookie year after sitting out 2022 with acute promyelocytic leukemia, Metchie was on the bottom rungs of the depth chart. He got to show himself late in the season when injuries hit and was a big part of the playoff win over Cleveland, but Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans told Jonathan M. Alexander and Dennis Silva II of the Houston Chronicle that Metchie had an inconsistent year. "I think Metchie's had a little up and downs throughout the season, had some opportunities to make plays," Ryans said. "Some moments he made them, some he didn't." One of the organization's goals during the offseason is to build around quarterback C.J. Stroud, and Metchie will need to show consistency to force a move up the depth chart.
In his rookie season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba managed 63 receptions from 93 targets, totaling 628 yards and 4 touchdowns. Despite a slow start due to a wrist injury, he began to find his rhythm from Week 6 onwards, averaging 8.2 points per game. With more opportunities ahead in 2024, the 22-year-old wideout is poised as a breakout candidate for the Seahawks in what should be a pass-happier offense under new OC Ryan Grubb.
The wideout sustained a left leg wound as an innocent bystander during a shooting in late April, but Dell's already back on the practice field and running routes and seems to be an unrestricted participant to begin OTAs. The 2023 third-rounder has already recovered from the fibula injury he suffered last December, and he rejoins a wide receiver room that added Stefon Diggs as a trade acquisition and returns Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Noah Brown (shoulder) and John Metchie.
Jayden Reed made an impact in his rookie season, as a primary slot receiver for the Packers. Despite not always playing a full-time role, he was heavily targeted, with a 25% target rate per route run and just under 2 yards per route run. Reed led all Packers wide receivers in points/game with 10.6 and ten touchdowns. He finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his games (12th) and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap.
Despite all the injuries to Chargers wideouts, the 2023 fourth-round pick was merely a gadget option, as Davis had nearly as many receptions (15) as carries (14) in his pro debut. The speedy target might have been unceremoniously passed over on the depth chart by castoff receivers such as Alex Erickson, Keelan Doss and Jalen Guyton, but Davis did prove to be an effective return man, combining for 760 return yards to go along with one touchdown. Los Angeles' receiving corps could undergo a massive overhaul due to cap woes, which would leave Davis and fellow TCU target Quentin Johnston as one of the last few pass catchers standing entering the 2024 campaign.
Demario Douglas emerged as a surprise contributor for the Patriots in 2023, showcasing his playmaking ability despite failing to find the end zone. Leading the team with 561 receiving yards without a touchdown, he demonstrated consistent involvement in the passing game with an 18% target share. From Week 7 onwards, Douglas maintained a significant role, posting a 21% target share and earning praise for his performance. However, the Patriots' decision to draft two wide receivers this year introduces competition, potentially impacting Douglas's role in the offense moving forward.
The former Penn State product was a dominant slot at times at the collegiate level and carried over some of those separation skills to the NFL when given opportunities in 2023. He will look to lock down a role in the Jaguars offense but is unlikely to make a Fantasy impact in 2024.
Mims is a sleeper receiver thanks to his rare speed. He'll compete for playing time this preseason with the Broncos. Though Mims found the end zone just once as a rookie, he did manage to rack up at least 16 receiving yards on eight of his 22 receptions. That kind of efficiency will get him noticed in Denver, where there's fierce competition expected for all of their receiving roles this preseason. View Mims as a late-round pick in all kinds of leagues, but especially in Best Ball formats.
Josh Downs had a promising rookie season with the Colts, showcasing his skills with 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards. Despite his strong performance, Downs struggled to find the end zone, recording only two touchdowns. However, his production dipped after sustaining a knee injury, impacting his performance in the latter part of the season. Nonetheless, Downs displayed potential from Weeks 1-8, leading the Colts in yards per route run and maintaining a solid 19% target share.
Brooks caught all six of his targets for 64 yards over seven regular-season games in 2023. The seventh-round pick out of South Carolina was never active for more than three games in a row during his rookie season, and most of his production came in Week 10, when he saw extra run in garbage time against the Giants. The Cowboys figure to return most of their key offensive personnel in 2024, but if Michael Gallup or Brandin Cooks becomes cap casualties in the offseason, Brooks could move into a bigger role.
The keys to Nacua's breakout last year were his outstanding route running, his timing with Matthew Stafford and his penchant for taking advantage of both Cooper Kupp's absences and Kupp's ability to draw double coverage. Understandably, Nacua's numbers were better without Kupp (13.0 targets and 23.8 PPR points per game in Weeks 1 through 4) than with Kupp (8.5 targets and 15.7 PPR points per game from Week 5 on). That should set a realistic expectation on what to count on from Nacua in his second season, which frankly is still quite excellent considering the lack of elite-tier receivers in Fantasy. It helps that the Rams offense might be even better this year considering their O-line enhancements and Stafford entering the season healthy. Not only should Nacua get picked well before Kupp, but he's in the conversation as a late-Round 1 pick in PPR redraft leagues; he's more of a Round 2 pick in half- and non-PPR.
Tillman is expected to be the No. 4 receiver for the Browns this season, but he has minimal Fantasy value in that role. He's not worth drafting in the majority of leagues. Cleveland has a crowded receiving corps with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore, and Tillman could struggle for targets. As a rookie, the 2023 third-round pick recorded a 21-224-0 line on 44 targets in 14 regular-season games, but hopefully better quarterback play could help with Deshaun Watson (shoulder) back at 100 percent. There's a chance Tillman could surprise us and be more of a factor on offense, but let him prove himself first. He could be someone to add off the waiver wire during the year.
Expect Wilson to compete for a decent target share this season with the Cardinals. He notched at least six targets in five of 13 games as a rookie last year but managed 14-plus PPR points just twice. The team's addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. at receiver is a lock to impact Wilson's contributions, making him more of a low-end bench player in deeper redraft leagues, even though he offers some size to the Cardinals receiving game. Expect him to get taken in Round 13 or later, and probably only in deeper full-PPR leagues.
Jordan Addison had a solid rookie campaign, recording 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns on a 17% target share. His consistent contributions earned him an average of 11 fantasy points per game, ranking him as WR28 overall. Despite his promising performance, his fantasy outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty at the quarterback position following Kirk Cousins' departure. At least, the absence of T.J. Hockenson due to injury could boost Addison's role in the offense to open the season.
Gipson's role on offense may be usurped by Malachi Corley, which would leave Gipson on the waiver wire in most leagues. One exception may be leagues that reward points for return yards. Last season Gipson produced 830 yards and a score on punt and kick returns combined. With the change in kick return rules, whoever has that role should see even more opportunities for returns.
Rookie Zay Flowers quickly established himself as Lamar Jackson's go-to receiver in Baltimore, securing a 24% target share. He led the Ravens in air yards/target share, accumulating over 1,000 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in 18 games. However, his final rankings as WR29 overall and WR31 in points/game hint that he may have underperformed relative to his opportunities. When Mark Andrews was active in the lineup (Weeks 2-10) Flowers averaged 8.2 points/game with a 22% target share. When the TE missed, Flowers posted a 24% target share and 13.2 points/game (WR14).
Palmer and rookie third-round pick Jalen McMillan are the top candidates for Tampa Bay's No. 3 receiver job, Joshua Queipo of PewterReport.com reports. Palmer, a 2023 sixth-round pick, held the role for nearly all of his rookie season, though he was perhaps miscast in the slot. New offensive coordinator Liam Coen said he wants to put Chris Godwin back in the slot as his primary alignment, which means the team's No. 3 receiver this upcoming season likely will play a majority of his snaps outside. While that's perhaps good news for Palmer given his speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash time at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine) wheels, McMillan has decent speed in his own right (4.47-second 40-yard dash time) and is slightly taller and heavier (6-foot-1 and 197 pounds) than Palmer (six-foot, 192). There's also the matter of Palmer being a much later draft pick and then struggling with his opportunities as a rookie; he caught just 57.4 percent of his 68 targets and averaged 9.9 yards per catch.
Bobo figures to be a backup receiver in Seattle's offense, likely to work near the sidelines and in the short-area passing game if/when he does see consistent playing time. He's an intriguing talent because of his size and quickness but shouldn't be on anyone's Fantasy radar outside the deepest of Dynasty leagues.
We aren't drafting Hyatt before Round 15 in redraft leagues and we aren't sure he'll earn a starting role in Year 2 with Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton ahead of him. The good for Hyatt last year was his 109-yard outburst against the Patriots, his 16.2 yards per catch, and his 9.3 yards per target. But those efficiency stats were muted by the fact that the Patriots game was the only one all season where he earned more than five targets. We're more interested in stashing the 22-year-old in Dynasty leagues. He could be a Best Ball specialist in the right offense due to his big-play ability and blazing speed.
Scott played on at least 40 percent of the snaps in eight of his last 12 games, and he gained valuable experience that he'll need to make a push up the depth chart in 2024. The rookie finished the season with 17 catches and 168 yards along with seven rushes for another 41 yards. Scott is signed through the 2026 season.
Bell finished with six receptions (13 targets) for 68 yards and three touchdowns while appearing in 17 regular-season games for San Francisco in 2023. Bell product wasn't projected to make the 53-man roster after being selected by a team loaded at receiver, but a strong camp earned him a reserve role out of the gates. The Michigan product didn't get a ton of run with just six catches in 17 games, but he had a nose for the end zone with half of those receptions hitting pay dirt. Bell also helped fill in for an injured Ray-Ray McCloud as the 49ers' punt returner over the team's final five games. With the latter's contract expiring this offseason, Bell could find himself taking over return duties while being mixed in on offense in 2024.
The Draft Day story is that Mingo was selected by the Panthers after owner David Tepper called up former star Steve Smith Sr. to ask which receiver he preferred, and this gave a new definition to being handpicked by the regime. Of course, Tepper brought aboard a new regime in Carolina after moving on from Frank Reich and hiring Dave Canales this offseason. Mingo will have a chance to develop his game and earn snaps after playing his best football as a rookie in the second half, but he'll have a tough time earning targets with the team using a first-round pick on Xavier Legette and trading for Diontae Johnson, as well as Adam Thielen returning. Mingo is unlikely to be drafted outside of deep-rostered leagues.
Heath is a reserve receiver for the Packers, and he isn't expected to have a prominent role if everyone is healthy. Heath should not be drafted in the majority of leagues. In 2023 as an undrafted rookie, Heath had minimal production behind Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Heath was targeted 24 times and had 15 receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown over 13 regular-season games. It's unlikely Heath will have consistent production when everyone is healthy, and if he does perform at a high level then just add Heath off the waiver wire during the season.
Dontayvion Wicks made significant contributions to the Packers' offense during Christian Watson's absence, showcasing his big-play ability and reliability as a target. With 39 receptions for 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, Wicks demonstrated his potential to be a valuable asset in the passing game. Despite being a fifth-round rookie, he ranked among the top rookies in yards per route run, hinting at his promising future in an offense led by Jordan Love. As a deep sleeper, Wicks has the opportunity to emerge as a key playmaker in the Packers' ascending offense.
Jarrett went undrafted out of Maryland after having a down season in 2022. In his sophomore year, though, Jarrett caught 62 passes for 829 yards and five touchdowns. During the preseason, he caught seven passes for 132 yards. He could be a depth option in the short term with intriguing long-term upside.
Tucker's speed will give him a shot to earn some meaningful snaps this season with the Raiders, but it's a crowded offense that should limit the number of targets he gets from week to week. Tucker is a decent late option in Best Ball drafts since he could have two to three games this year with some huge numbers, but otherwise Fantasy managers should ignore him until he earns more targets.
Quentin Johnston's rookie season left much to be desired, with disappointing production. Despite the Chargers' offseason moves opening up opportunities, including the departure of key receivers, Johnston failed to capitalize on his chances. With Ladd McConkey drafted early, Johnston's future role in the offense becomes uncertain. While it may be premature to label him a bust after just one season, his lack of impact in Year 1 (61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run) raises red flags for his fantasy value moving forward.
Until Turner finds meaningful playing time, Fantasy managers shouldn't bother adding him to rosters.
Iosivas will compete with rookie Jermaine Burton to be the No. 3 receiver for the Bengals this season, and Iosivas could be worth a late-round pick in all leagues. Most likely, Iosivas will be No. 4 on the depth chart behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Burton, but Iosivas might surprise Fantasy managers this season if given a big role. In 2023, Iosivas didn't do much until Week 18 when he had five catches for 36 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. There are 98 targets vacated with Tyler Boyd gone, and that could help Iosivas. However, the addition of Burton is a negative, and if Higgins shows up for Week 1, then targets might be hard to come by. At best, Iosivas could be someone to add off the waiver wire during the season if he starts off playing well right away.