-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Brandon Aiyuk's 2024 season unraveled quickly. After a training camp holdout and securing a four-year, $120 million extension, he struggled mightily, averaging just 7.1 fantasy points per game (WR61) with only one game over 50 yards. Things got worse when he tore his ACL and MCL in mid-October, putting his Week 1 status for 2025 in doubt. Given his poor performance after missing time last year, expectations should be tempered early on.
Zay Flowers built on a strong rookie year with a 1,000-yard sophomore campaign, finishing as the WR24 in total points (WR33 per game). He maintained a 25% target share (12th among WRs) and saw a major jump in efficiency, ranking 13th in YPRR (2.25) and 7th from Week 5 onward (2.57). That said, we love consistency in fantasy -- and Flowers is far from that with some "empty outings" mixed with big games. His lack of opportunities in the red zone will continue to haunt his TD production. He also comes with injury concerns as he suffered a knee injury that ended his 2024 season, though he did not require surgery. Wait until the middle rounds of your draft to target Flowers, especially in leagues that value receptions.
Cooper Kupp's homecoming to Seattle comes with more nostalgia than fantasy upside. The 32-year-old signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Seahawks after being released by the Rams, who opted to pay Davante Adams rather than keep Kupp around. Injuries have derailed his career since 2022 - including an ankle issue that limited him to 12 games in 2024 - and he averaged just 2.5 catches and 36 yards per game over his final seven contests last season. While Kupp helps fill the veteran void in a post-DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett Seahawks WR room, he's unlikely to thrive in Klint Kubiak's run-heavy offense led by Sam Darnold.
Terry McLaurin enjoyed a career-best season in 2024, finishing as the WR6 overall with 82 catches, 1,110 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He thrived with Jayden Daniels under center, finishing as a top-24 WR in 69% of games - tied for third among all wideouts. However, McLaurin's breakout was driven by elite touchdown efficiency, as he nearly doubled his expected TD output per PFF. Despite the strong production, he posted just a 21% target share (37th) and ranked outside the top-30 in targets per game. With Deebo Samuel added and Zach Ertz still lingering, TMC might not be a target monster in 2025. If his TD rate regresses, McLaurin could be overvalued at his draft cost.
At this point, everyone should know and love what they get from DeVonta Smith yearly. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14). Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The big problem with Smith is that he is so TD dependent, making his top 20 finish last season a bit misleading. There are alos plenty of mouths to feed in Philly: Brown, Barkley, Goedert and others. While he has avoided major injuries, there have been some minor concerns with his health.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 with a WR10 finish in half-PPR, tallying 100 catches, 1,130 yards, and 6 TDs. Even with Seattle emphasizing a run-heavy, defense-first approach under Klint Kubiak, Smith-Njigba still projects as the offensive centerpiece in the passing game - especially with Sam Darnold under center. Darnold's history of hyper-targeting receivers (tunnel vision) and lack of competition behind JSN (aging Cooper Kupp and fringe depth) bodes well for target volume. Kubiak's offenses have historically been run-heavy, which could impact overall passing volume. Smith-Njigba's relatively low run-blocking grade may impact his playing time in run-heavy formations. Questions about chemistry with a new QB, volume and his role in the new offense lead us to grade him more of a borderline WR2/WR3.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 with a WR10 finish in half-PPR, tallying 100 catches, 1,130 yards, and 6 TDs. Even with Seattle emphasizing a run-heavy, defense-first approach under Klint Kubiak, Smith-Njigba still projects as the offensive centerpiece in the passing game - especially with Sam Darnold under center. Darnold's history of hyper-targeting receivers (tunnel vision) and lack of competition behind JSN (aging Cooper Kupp and fringe depth) bodes well for target volume. Kubiak's offenses have historically been run-heavy, which could impact overall passing volume. Smith-Njigba's relatively low run-blocking grade may impact his playing time in run-heavy formations.
As Bo Nix's WR1 last year, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR24 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 23.3% target share and 44.9% air yard share. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 26th in receiving yards per game (63.6), 28th in yards per route run (2.13), and 15th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Sutton should reprise his role as Nix's security blanket. He will face competition for the weekly lead in targets with Evan Engram, but it's comfortably Sutton and Engram at the top of the mountain while the rest of the receiving options fight for the remaining targets. While Sutton scored a high number of touchdowns in 2024, this could regress in 2025. If you can get him at a discounted rate (WR3), his reliability makes him a worthwhile fantasy option -- just don't overvalue him as a WR2.
While I know Wilson's 2024 season didn't turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked tenth in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers' rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics. Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate. Moving from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers to fringer starter Justin Fields is likely to impact Wilson's stats. How will the combination of Fields and a potentially run-heavy offense impact Wilson's fantasy value?
While I know Wilson's 2024 season didn't turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked tenth in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers' rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics. Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate.
Xavier Worthy broke out down the stretch in 2024, posting at least four catches and 40+ yards in 10 straight games while scoring 12 total touchdowns (9 receiving, 3 rushing) on the year. From Week 11 on, he averaged over 2.0 yards per route run and 14.6 fantasy points per game - WR8 production over that span. He also ranked 10th in red-zone targets and finished the regular season as the WR21 from Weeks 11-17. A sophomore leap is possible for the blazing receiver (4.21 in the 40-yard dash), so "Bust" may be too strong a word -- but his volume may be inconsistent again in 2025. Worthy benefited from wide receiver Rashee Rice’s season-ending lateral collateral ligament (LCL) injury last season, but Rice is reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery. Our biggest issue is his inflated ADP where we have seen him coming off the board in Round 4 as a higher tier WR2. We like him better in the Round 6-7 area.