-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
After a disappointing, injury-marred season in 2022, Dak Prescott rebounded with perhaps the finest season of his career in 2023. Prescott led all NFL quarterbacks in touchdown passes (36) and completions (410) last season and finished QB3 in fantasy scoring. Although he doesn't offer a great deal of value as a runner, Prescott is one of the better pure passers in the game. In 2023, he ranked second in completion percentage (69.5%) among QBs with at least six starts, second in passer rating (105.9) and sixth in yards per attempt (7.7). Prescott benefits from playing with CeeDee Lamb, one of the best young receivers in the game.
Could Patrick Mahomes be a bargain in 2024 fantasy drafts? That will be a distinct possibility if enough fantasy managers are scared off by a disappointing 2023 campaign in which Mahomes finished QB8 in fantasy scoring. Mahomes averaged 261.4 passing yards per game last season, the fewest in his six years as the Chiefs' starting quarterback. He also hit a six-year low in yards per attempt (6.9) and touchdown rate (4.0%). Mahomes is too good to have "lost it." The easy explanation is that Mahomes simply didn't have enough pass-catching firepower. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is 34 and may have reached the slowdown phase of his career. WR Rashee Rice put up good numbers in 2023, but Rice is a non-traditional receiver who had an average depth of target of only 4.8 yards and made his living off schemed-up receptions. Kansas City has added a couple of quality receivers, signing Marquise Brown and spending a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy, so Mahomes should be back in business. We are, after all, talking about a player who's won two MVP awards, has had two 5,000-yard passing seasons and has had a 50-TD season. Mahomes is on the shortlist of the best pure passers to ever play in the NFL. Fade him at your own peril.
The fantasy track record Josh Allen has compiled is impressive. His yearly finishes in fantasy scoring since 2019: QB7, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last four seasons, averaging 4,385 passing yards and 34.3 TD passes over that span. Allen adds immense value as a runner. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of the 15 rushing touchdowns he had this season, since his previous single-season high was nine. But Allen has averaged 596 rushing yards and 9.0 TD runs over the last five years. A spring trade that sent Stefon Diggs to the Texans brings the caliber of the Bills pass-catching into question, but even with a loss of WR firepower, Allen still has a strong case to be considered the QB1.
Lamar Jackson has long been the best running quarterback in football -- and quite possibly the best of all time. But Jackson made enormous striders as a passer in 2023, thriving under the tutelage of first-year Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Jackson established new career highs in passing yardage (3,678), completion percentage (67.2%) and yards per attempt (8.0). And of course, Jackson provided plenty of fantasy value as a runner, with 821 rushing yards and five TD runs. Jackson finished QB4 in fantasy scoring in 2023 despite being held out of the season finale, and he had a spectacular stretch run for his fantasy managers, averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game in Weeks 14-17. Jackson will once again take his rightful place on the top QB tier for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Jalen Hurts finished QB2 in fantasy scoring in 2023, but there are reasons for concern heading into the 2024 season. After averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game during a banner 2022 campaign, Hurts' scoring average dropped to 21.9 FPPG in 2023. His passing yardage per game fell from 246.7 to 226.9, and his yardage per attempt slipped from 8.0 to 7.2. Hurts also had slippage in completion percentage and touchdown rate, and his passer rating plummeted from 101.5 to 89.1. On the bright side, Hurts provided ample rushing value, with 605 rushing yards and 15 TD runs, the most ever for a quarterback in a single season. The fear is that Hurts' fantasy value could take a tumble in 2024 if there's a significant drop-off in rushing touchdowns. TD runs accounted for 24.1% of Hurts' 2023 fantasy points. If Hurts is to remain a top-three fantasy quarterback, he'll probably need to boost his passing efficiency.
Jordan Love's first full season as an NFL starter raised hopes that he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. After an uneven start to his 2023 season, Love caught fire. Over his first nine starts, Love was averaging 223.2 passing yards per game, with 14 TD passes, 10 interceptions, a 58.7% completion rate and an average of 6.7 yards per attempt. Over his last eight starts of the 2023 regular season, Love averaged 268.8 passing yards per game, with 18 TD passes, one interception, a 70.3% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt. He then went out and dissected the Cowboys in a wild-card game, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and three TDs. Love adds some value as a runner (247 rushing yards and four TD runs in 2023), and he has a gaggle of good young pass catchers. The future is bright for the Packers' heir apparent at quarterback.