-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
Some players are simply built differently. Henry has and remains one of those guys. Last year, at age 29, he ranked first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards while showing little drop-off in his efficiency metrics. Last season, among 68 qualifying backs, Henry ranked ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While he will cross the dreaded age 30 threshold this year, it's tough to project a drop-off for Henry and any reasons that he can't continue to chug along as an RB1., especially when Henry has proven over the last two seasons that his pass game utility should increase despite his advancing age. Over the last two years, Henry has ranked 11th and 14th in TPRR and seventh and first in YPRR among backs. The big fellow isn't slowing down. Continue to believe in the King in 2024 as the Ravens' workhorse back.
Joe Mixon and Rachaad White were the Spiderman GIF last season. Both were exceptionally inefficient runners who survived on volume and passing game work. Mixon was the RB11 last season, ranking eighth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. He was whopping fifth in carries and 13th in targets as Cincinnati worked in Chase Brown only sparingly. He has the opportunity to reprise that same workload in Houston. With only Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, Jawhar Jordan, and J.J. Taylor behind Mixon, he should be the unquestioned bellcow for the Texans in 2024. Last season, Mixon's per-touch efficiency was horrendous. He was 36th in yards per touch, 35th in yards created per touch, and 41st in breakaway run rate. That didn't stop him from being an RB1 last year, and it likely won't this season.
Father Time comes calling for all of us. The hope for Aaron Jones is that he can keep him at bay for one more year. Last season, Jones objectively wasn't healthy until the end of the season. Luckily for him, when he was healthy, we got to see that Jones has plenty left in the tank to consider reinvesting in him in fantasy for one more season. In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards as he was a weekly stud. During that same stretch, among 47 qualifying backs, he was eighth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jones should lead the Vikings backfield in 2024 as an RB2 with RB1 upside if he can stay healthy.
Austin Ekeler's 2023 season was a letdown, no matter how you look at it. Ekeler suffered an ankle sprain in Week 1, which led to three games being missed and possibly muted production for the rest of the season. Once he returned from injury, he averaged 16.1 touches and 69.2 total yards as the RB28 in fantasy points per game. It was a dramatic fall from grace for a back that had not finished outside the top-nine running backs in fantasy since 2018 (RB28). Ekeler retained some of his pass game prowess as he ranked eighth in target share and 19th in yards per route run (among 60 qualifying backs per Fantasy Points Data), but his rushing skills fell apart. Among 49 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Landing in Washington with Anthony Lynn was one of the better-case scenarios this offseason. He likely forms a frustrating committee with Brian Robinson in an Antonio Gibson-plus role for Washington.
The Philly front office has officially gaslit the entire Giants' fanbase. Barkley's move to the Eagles might be met with some blowback because people are worried about his touchdown equity with Jalen Hurts. Barkley and D'Andre Swift are not close to being in the same talent area code. Bringing in Barkley means we likely see a downtick of Hurts' goalline dives in 2024. While the overall counting stats for Barkley look depressed, he's still very much an every-down bell cow with juice left in the tank entering his age-27 season. Last season, he played at least 70% of the snaps in 11 of his 14 games while ranking second in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. Last season, Barkley was still an explosive player, ranking 17th in explosive run rate, but his tackle-breaking metrics took a hit as he was 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 50 carries per Fantasy Points Data). Barkley remains a stud RB1.
Gus Edwards arrives in Los Angeles with a two-year deal that is essentially a one-year contract, with the money falling off after 2024. Last season, Edwards was the RB32 in fantasy, with the strength of 13 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Edwards is an early down grinder who only managed a 2.8% target share last season, so all of his value will have to come via rushing. Edwards looks like a player on the decline in the rushing department after finishing 51st in juke rate, 39th in evaded tackles, and 45th in yards created per touch last season. With J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal brought in as competition, Edwards could be on the outside looking with volume this season.
Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated. Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active. Jacobs wasn't the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs could be this season's Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season, but don't rule out MarShawn Lloyd playing a much bigger role this season than many anticipate. Jacobs is a shaky RB2.
Tony Pollard was a massive disappointment last year. He went from being one of the most explosive backs in the NFL to a rusher that left a ton of yards on the field. Pollard got the role that we all wanted last season, ranking seventh in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and second in red zone touches. He was a volume-eating machine, ranking seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs, but he did very little with the work. Pollard was the RB11 in expected fantasy points per game, but he was the RB23 in fantasy points per game. He was 44th in yards per touch and 37th in yards created per touch. Some of this could easily be due to the injury he sustained in the prior season because his numbers down the stretch were much better. In Weeks 11-18, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, so there's hope that he bounces back in 2024 with a full offseason to get back to 100%. Tennessee isn't the sexiest landing spot for Pollard, but considering the contract size and length and the team's yearning to move quickly to acquire his services, he should be considered their lead back in 2024. Tyjae Spears will push him at every turn, but money talks and Pollard got it this offseason.
t’s been quite the journey for Mattison, who started his career as the backup for Dalvin Cook then earned the starting job for the Vikings in 2023 before being released in 2024. His main competition for touches as of now is from Zamir White, who showed great ability at the end of 2023 while filling in for former Raider Josh Jacobs.
Dobbins signed with the Chargers this offseason, and he's expected to compete with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal for touches this year. Dobbins is worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues. Dobbins is coming off a torn Achilles suffered in Week 1 last year, and he's expected to be healthy heading into training camp. That said, we know Dobbins has struggled with injuries his entire career. Since being drafted in the second round by the Ravens in 2020, Dobbins has missed 43 games due to various injuries, including a torn ACL, torn LCL and a torn Achilles tendon. If healthy, Dobbins could be a surprise Fantasy option in the Chargers' run-based offense. Edwards will likely be the starter, and Vidal could have a role in his rookie campaign. But Dobbins might have the most upside of the trio, and he's worth keeping an eye on during training camp.
Gibson lands in New England on a three-year deal, which is essentially a puffed-up one-year deal. New England can get out of Gibson's contract after one season if he doesn't pan out as Rhamondre Stevenson's running mate this upcoming season. Last season, in a breather role, Gibson ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Gibson has displayed explosive playmaking when utilized properly, as well as also demonstrating the ability to be a volume rusher when it has been called for. Gibson should work in tandem with Stevenson as the pass-catching component of this backfield, but if Stevenson falters out the gate, don't be surprised if Gibson takes over the lead role. Gibson is an interesting RB3 with upside in 2024.
Moss parlayed his starting stint last year with the Colts into a possible starting gig with the Bengals. In the seven games he started and played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Moss should handle the early downs in Cincinnati this season after ranking 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Chase Brown could eat into his pass game work as Moss was only 41st in yards per route run and 48th in targets per route run. Even if his passing game usage is capped, being the early down back on one of the league's best offenses still puts him in the RB2/3 conversation.
Devin Singletary steps in as the Giants' new lead back with some big shoes to fill with Saquon Barkley's departure. Last year, with the Texans, he proved again that he could be a solid starting tailback in the NFL as he stepped in during the middle of the season and stole the starting job away from Dameon Pierce in Houston. In Weeks 9-18, he averaged 19 touches and 86.6 total yards as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. Singletary continues to roll along as an efficient rusher. Last year, he was 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While the Giants aren't the sexiest landing spot, Singletary should flirt with RB2 production as the team's bellcow.
D'Andre Swift lands in Chicago with a contract that is large enough to consider him the clear starter for the Bears. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson had their moments last season, but the aggression and contact size for Chicago speak volumes about how they feel about those two rushers. The Bears obviously felt that an upgrade was warranted. Swift ranked 17th in explosive run rate last season while disappointing in other tackle-breaking metrics as the RB24 in fantasy. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, Swift ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift should be a solid RB2 in 2024.
Elliott heads back to Dallas after a one-year stint with the Patriots. Last season should have fully proven that Elliott's tires are flat. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Elliott will mix in with Rico Dowdle to form an uninspiring committee in Dallas. Elliott is a touchdown-dependant flex/RB4.
Ward handled a depth role across eight regular-season appearances with the Titans in 2023. He'll now get a chance to compete for a similar reserve spot in Pittsburgh, where Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson stand above him on the depth chart.