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Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
After finishing as the fantasy TE1 for three straight seasons, Travis Kelce was finally de-throned by Mark Andrews in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8). It seems logical that Kelce's reign as the perennial consensus TE1 has come to a conclusion as he enters his age-33 season in 2022. However, it's impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021. Although it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020.
Even though George Kittle didn't feel like a great investment as an early round selection in 2021 fantasy drafts, there's no denying his finish as the TE3 in both overall points and points per game (15.0) despite playing just 13 games. The 49ers tight end finished as PFF's highest-graded tight end (91.2) and repeated as the leader in yards per route run (2.35) among all tight ends for the fourth consecutive season.
There's bound to be some hesitancy about drafting tight ends early after guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas failed to live up to their lofty projections (due to injury or not). But the process was still sound behind adding some of those players in the early rounds if you look at their per-game production. Speaking to Waller, the Raiders tight end came in third in expected fantasy points per game (14.6), which ranked top-20 among all tight ends and wide receivers. He also ranked sixth in points per game (12.1) and second in targets per game (8.5) The major concern with Waller in 2022 is how much Davante Adams will eat into his targets. However, I'd focus more on valuing Waller based on how good the Raiders offense as a whole can be with the addition of Adams. I'd be willing to forego one or fewer targets per game for Waller, if it means more scoring opportunities. The big-bodied Black Hole tight end is primed for positive touchdown regression after converting just two of his 10 end-zone targets into touchdowns in 2021.
If Kyle Pitts' ADP is lower than it was in 2021, he will be a screaming value. At just 21 years old, Pitts finished third among tight ends in receiving yards (1,018) through 17 weeks of the season and third in route participation (80%) through 18 weeks. The rookie fell short of lofty preseason expectations, though, as he scored just one touchdown. Any other pass-catcher that compiled at least 1,000 receiving yards caught at least four touchdowns. And per PFF's expected fantasy points model, the Falcons tight end should have scored 5.6 touchdowns. With positive regression for Year 2 in his favor, draft the uber-talented Pitts aggressively everywhere in 2022.
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first. With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets. However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career-year. Andrews' increase in route running was tied to the Ravens boosted pass-play rate (56%). From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore's increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I'd project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season.