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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2019 Draft Kit
He's been a top-two tight end each of the past three seasons, but it's not just that. In his first year with Patrick Mahomes, Kelce outscored all but eight wide receivers and all but five running backs in PPR. So even if you don't believe in the positional scarcity of tight ends (how could you not?), Kelce is a worthwhile second-round pick. In TE-premium leagues, Kelce is a legitimate first round pick. You don't have to draft a tight end? Even then I'm not sure I'd avoid him. If I had to manufacture a risk, it would be that Tyreek Hill is suspended for the year and Sammy Watkins can't stay healthy. In that scenario, Kelce likely faces double teams on every play and may fall all the way to the No. 3 tight end.
Ertz may be listed as a tight end, but he's the No. 1 receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles. Only five receivers had more targets than Ertz in 2018, and only Michael Thomas caught more passes. While Ertz did finish a full point per game behind Travis Kelce in PPR, he would have ranked as the No. 10 wide receiver in the format. He's one of the few tight ends who should be drafted regardless of whether you have to start one. He's also a nice consolation prize in the third round if you don't draft Kelce. For some guys it's really hard to find a case against, so I'm reaching a little bit here. But Ertz does have another talented tight end in Philadelphia in Dallas Goedert, and it's possible his numbers regress a little off his career year. Also, Nick Foles is gone, so if Carson Wentz suffers yet another injury, Ertz could actually see his production impacted.
Henry was our favorite breakout tight end a year ago before suffering a torn ACL that cost him the season. But the injury happened early enough in the offseason, and Henry is young enough that we can just repeat that call. Henry is still just 25 years old and already has an eight-touchdown season on his resume. Antonio Gates is no longer in the way and Philip Rivers has a long history of leaning on his tight end. The Chargers fix last year was to target their running backs more and use Mike Williams in the red zone. Williams, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are all still there, and there's no guarantee they won't stand in the way of Henry's breakout. Henry is a fine late-round tight end to settle for, but don't go reaching. There are still plenty of weapons in Los Angeles.
With Odell Beckham out of the picture, Engram figures to see a boost in targets. He's averaged almost nine targets per game in games with Beckham the past year, which is elite usage for a tight end. While Engram's counting numbers went down last season, he was actually far more efficient. He caught 70 percent of his targets and averaged 12.8 yards per reception. If he can maintain that efficiency with increased usage, Engram could join the big three tight ends as another elite option. The problem with using Engram's numbers without Beckham is that you're not accounting for the impact of Golden Tate. Tate won't command the same target share Beckham did, but the combination of Tate and Sterling Shepard may tamp down Engram's upside a little bit, especially with Saquon Barkley taking 20 percent of the team's targets.
Like Ertz, Kittle is the true No. 1 on his team. Or at least he was last year, seeing 25% of his team's targets. But he was also different than Ertz in that he was far more productive with the ball in his hands. He averaged 15.6 yards per reception and finished eighth in the NFL in receiving yards. The 49ers added more at running back this offseason than they did at receiver, so Kittle should again be one of the three actual difference-makers at tight end. There is a little bit of concern about just how sustainable Kittle's production was. More than 20% of his receiving yards came on four plays and he had six plays of more than 40 yards. At the very least it's highly unlikely he'll have three plays of more than 70 yards again. There's also some reason to be concerned about his target share after the team drafted Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. There is a ton of young talent in this receiving corps and I would expect they'll be targeted. The regression and volume concerns aren't enough to drop him out of the top three tight ends, but it might make you think twice about his Round 3 price tag.
Howard is legitimately a star in the making. He's one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL, averaging better than 16 yards per reception two years in a row. We often see tight ends take a little longer than other positions to make a Fantasy impact, but 2019 should be Howard's year with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries out of the picture. We know how much Jameis Winston leans on his tight ends. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate are all still there. And in a Bruce Arians's offense you'd expect there's going to be a running back involved in the passing game as well. Speaking of Arians, when's the last time you can remember a breakout tight end in his offense? Maybe Heath Miller, but that was 2009.