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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
Say hello to the fastest man on Earth. Well at least by the NFL Combine standards for a short period of time. Baylor's Tyquan Thorton broke John Ross' 4.22 record with an unofficial 4.21 40-yard dash - the fastest mark ever recorded. Although, he did not hold the record for long as his official time came in just short of the record at 4.28 seconds. The Baylor wideout was barely on my radar for fantasy football purposes before the NFL Combine, which was clearly an oversight on my part. His speed alone will get him decent draft capital. Thornton's speed translated well into on-field production as he graded out as a top-10 wideout in PFF receiving grade from the intermediate level of the field (10-19 yards) last season.
The Dallas Cowboys needed a No. 3 receiver and Jalen Tolbert fits the bill to a tee. The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks. The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating - top-three in the class - factoring in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42%, and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation's leader in targets (99), catches (38), and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards. Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age - his player profile stacks up with some top wideouts from his class. And although Tolbert doesn't possess elite speed - 57th percentile 40-yard dash time - he still understands how to get open deep. He's similar to Adam Thielen in that fashion. If Tolbert can beat out James Washington - on a one-year $1.2M contract - in training camp, he could offer immediate value with Michael Gallup unlikely to be ready for Week 1 coming off a torn ACL. He's got big-play ability that should gel well with quarterback Dak Prescott.
Alec Pierce earned solid Day 2 draft capital with the Indianapolis Colts, but I'd be hard-pressed to admit I like the landing spot with Matt Ryan. Pierce figures to slide-into that vertical field-stretching role for the Colts vacated by veteran T.Y. Hilton based on the rookie's speed and vertical profile from his college career at Cincinnati. But how valuable of a role is that with the team committed to both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. as the clear touch hogs of the offense. Not to mention, Ryan's deep ball rate (9.1%) ranked 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in 2021.
I try not to read too much into narratives and rumors. But it's worth noting that the Giants went out and drafted Robinson in the second round, when he was projected to be a Round 4 pick at best. His skill set also has some overlap with Kadarius Toney, who the trade rumors were circling around briefly. This Giants receiving corps is a mess I don't want much attachment to. But Robinson's got a skill set that could make him New York's version of Deebo Samuel. I’m intrigued.
The worst-case scenario with Christian Watson is that he becomes Marques Valdez-Scantling in the Green Bay Packers offense. The elite athleticism and big-play ability present a sky-high ceiling as Aaron Rodgers' future WR1, but a lack of refinement and focus drops reveal a somewhat scary floor. MVS' 73-target rookie season in 2018 is the most a first-year WR has ever earned from Rodgers, which further bolsters the case for a Valdes-Scantling floor for Watson. Davante Adams led that team with 169 targets. Either way, he's worth a middle-to-backend Round 1 pick in rookie drafts. The opportunity he could see from Day 1 amid a lackluster receiving corps of Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers is salivating.
Danny Gray got his start at the junior college level playing at Blinn College before spending the last two years at SMU. In 2019, Gray led the team with 54 receptions for 877 yards and eight touchdowns. He totaled 958 all-purpose yards. As a true freshman, Gray registered 15 catches for 409 yards and six touchdowns. The 6-foot and 186-lb wide receiver finished his juco career averaging 18.6 yards per reception. His big-play ability earned him a spot on SMU's football team where he showed out big time in 2021. He finished fifth in the class in yards after the catch per reception (8.5). Gray also boasted a 19% target share and 24% air yards share. With elite speed - 4.33 40-yard dash - separation skills and experience playing out wide, Gray fits the archetype as a Day 3 player that could easily outperform his draft capital. Vertical prowess is a common trait among late-round WRs that make noise as rookies. He looks a lot like Nelson Agholor on tape - drops also included. His 12.5% drop rate is the 7th-worst mark in the class among WRs with at least 50 targets last season.
Drake London boasts all the skills to be an alpha possession receiver for the Atlanta Falcons. The 6-foot-4 and 219-pound towering USC wide receiver only played in eight games due to an ankle injury but made every game count. He commanded a 38% target share, led all WRs in contested catches (19) and in receptions per game (11.0). London concluded the year third in yards per route run (3.52) in his draft class. Even if London's final 2022 stat line doesn't turn heads based on potential shoddy quarterback play from Marcus Mariota /Desmond Ridder, a high target share will provide London a solid weekly floor.
David Bell might be my favorite WR to draft from Day 3 of the real NFL draft. He has an awesome landing spot with the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson . The Browns understand his limitations as an athlete, but his strengths as an underneath wide receiver can help him produce after the catch. Bell finished third in the FBS in receiving yards on the outside (1,097), second in total forced missed tackles (25) and 10th in PFF receiving grade (86.9) among his draft class. He's a perfect fit alongside prototypical No. 1 WR Amari Cooper and the speedy duo of Donovan Peoples-Jones/Anthony Schwartz.
The Memphis speedster will attempt to be more than just a special-teams return-man and gadget player for the Steelers. The former track star posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at Memphis with 19 total touchdowns in 23 games. While there's no doubting his breakaway ability and quick hands, he's definitely small and not physical, likely limiting how good he can be in the pros. It'll keep Austin from being a top-20 pick in rookie-only drafts, and it'll mean he'll be a very late pick in Dynasty start-ups.
Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore is being undervalued versus other Round 1 rookie WRs because he was a second-round pick as the 13th wide receiver selected in the draft. But Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers Juju Smith Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive YAC ability - tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021 - and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Chiefs WRs. With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ECR into the stratosphere. It's not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.
Nevada's Romeo Doubs broke out at age 19, so his top-tier production in the two years that followed should not have shocked anybody. He wrapped a bow on his Wolfpack career with a top-10 dominator rating in the 2022 Draft Class, headlined by a 36% score in 2020. As a consistent downfield threat - 55 targets of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons -Doubs has an archetype that many NFL teams will be interested in acquiring.
Ross signed with the Chiefs as an undrafted free agent from Clemson, and he has the chance to be a surprise Fantasy option this year. He could be worth a late-round flier in redraft leagues, and he's someone to gamble on with a third-round pick in rookie-only drafts. Ross was once thought of as a first-round talent, but a spinal injury in college put his pro career into question. He's healthy now, and he could be a steal for the Chiefs, who have a revamped receiving corps this year. Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson are gone, and the Chiefs will replace them with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore, as well as Mecole Hardman potentially getting a bigger role. We don't expect Ross to be ahead of those guys to open the season, but he could earn a bigger role as the year goes on. Keep an eye on what happens in training camp, and Ross could be a sleeper in deeper leagues if it appears like Patrick Mahomes is leaning on him.
Terry McLaurin is in the midst of a contract dispute, Curtis Samuel has struggled to stay healthy and 2021 third-rounder Dyami Brown failed to fire as a rookie. Jahan Dotson's biggest strengths to me are his reliability and the floor that he can offer the Commanders, and that is going to translate into target volume. That's what he did during his final season at Penn State, posting an absurd 43% dominator rating while racking up the 8th-most receptions in his draft class.
Erik Ezukanma selected No.125 by Miami DolphinsThe Miami Dolphins have selected Erik Ezukanma with the No. 125 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Fantasy ImpactAfter adding Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson this offseason to go along with Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, Ezukanma has an uphill fight for targets as a rookie and beyond.
Khalil Shakir's electric Boise State career hit its peak during his 2020 season when he cultivated a whopping 46% dominator score - the second-highest single-season rating among the 2022 Draft Class. He finished that year as PFF's ninth-graded WR (88.8), averaging over 100 receiving yards and 7.4 catches per game. Shakir's junior season was a strong follow-up to his 2019 breakout sophomore campaign when he hung a 22% dominator rating at age 19. The Boise State slot wide receiver would go on to end his college career on a high note as PFF's third-highest-graded wide receiver (92.9) among his draft class. As a strong favorite to etch out a role working inside for an NFL offense, Shakir could emerge as a Russell Gage-esque receiver that works well in fantasy PPR scoring.
Putting aside the long-term concerns with Jones entering the NFL as a 25-year-old rookie, he'll add another element of speed (he ran the second-fastest 40-yard dash among all WRs at the 2022 combine) and stop-start ability to a Bears passing game that doesn't have much outside of Darnell Mooney. You might find it hard to believe since Jones never had even 900 receiving yards in a college season (and he played a lot of college seasons), but there's a path toward him carrying some Fantasy value as soon as this season. It'll take a strong preseason to get there, so keep an eye on what he's doing. Jones might be a late pick in a handful of seasonal leagues and will probably be more of a late Round 2 choice in rookie-only drafts.
The Steelers selected George Pickens at pick No. 52 in the 2022 NFL Draft, with WR3 an area of need and Diontae Johnson (slated for free agency in 2023. I absolutely love the fit for Pickens here with the Steelers, who seem to never miss selecting wideouts on Day 2. Injuries and off-field issues plagued Pickens' draft stock, but he looks fully healthy based on his testing at the NFL Combine. And Pittsburgh seems like the right spot for him to get his head on straight. I already can't wait for the heated training camp fights between him and Chase Claypool as the gloves come off - well not really - for target supremacy. Pickens' college profile screams that of a true alpha, so I'd be looking to stash him across the board before he is fully unleashed. The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF's the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) - ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
Melton and Dareke Young were both drafted in the seventh round of the NFL Draft and they'll battle in training camp for one of the last spots on Seattle's roster. Barring a major surprise in camp, both can be ignored in redraft leagues and shouldn't be drafted before Round 5 of rookie-only drafts.
Treylon Burks finished first in his class in yards per route run (3.57) while also ranking No. 1 in yards per route run when lined up outside (6.08) among all receivers. It's an encouraging sign that a size-speed specimen delivered when aligned on the perimeter, as he spent 77% of his career in the slot. The rookie's 8.5 yards after the catch rank 14th among 169 qualifying wide receivers (92nd percentile) over the past two seasons.His elite college production and top-notch 32% dominator rating speak for themselves. And the best part is, he should produce from Day 1 after being drafted by the Tennessee Titans in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. There's hardly any competition for targets outside of Robert Woods), who is coming off a torn ACL. And with a similar YAC-ability to A.J. Brown, Burks should be able to step on the field on day one and offer immediate fantasy football appeal as a top-30 fantasy option.
After enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in 2020 that saw Garrett Wilson earn a 34% dominator rating - which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense - at 20 years old, the Ohio State product ran it back in impressive fashion in 2021. The Buckeye scored 12 receiving touchdowns, compiled over 1,000 receiving yards and generated the FBS' 12th-highest passer rating when targeted (141.7). He also proved to NFL teams that he was more than just a shifty slot receiver, averaging 3.00 yards per route run despite operating on the outside on 83% of his routes run, which nearly matched his same yards per route run average from 2020 when he spent most of his time inside. And although Wilson's 2021 24% dominator rating was less than his sophomore campaign, that's really due to Ohio State's talent in the wide receiver room. He was competing for targets with senior Chris Olave and sophomore standout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the nation in PFF receiving grade (91.7). Going beyond the box score reveals that Wilson is a versatile route runner who can align anywhere on the field and still win. He was selected by the New York Jets 10th overall and joins a somewhat crowded WR room. And nobody can be sure Zach Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. There are definitely question marks. However, Wilson is worth betting on because he's shown the ability at Ohio State to command targets and produce in an offense littered with other elite talents. Doesn't hurt his chance that he was deemed open on 84% of his targets last season.
Williams may not hit the field until October, making him a tough guy to stash in redraft formats. Furthermore, Williams' vertical ability cannot be capitalized with Jared Goff under center. Goff's average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his most recent 2021 mark (6.8) ranking dead last among 38th qualifying quarterbacks. He has also averaged just 13 completions of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons. Williams finished top-seven among all college wide receivers in receiving yards on 20-plus air yard throws in 2021. However, Williams does also possess top-tier YAC-ability so he should be able to salvage some production when he returns from injury. And although Goff's lack of deep game isn't ideal, we have seen him fuel top fantasy WR seasons before in Los Angeles and Detroit. Most recently with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was the fantasy WR3 to close out last season. Williams commanded a 31% dominator rating last season by hanging 1,561 receiving yards, 20 yards per reception and 15 touchdowns - all achievements that ranked top-three among his 2022 NFL Draft class. Nobody will be shocked to see Williams out-produce the combination of St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson once he is fully acclimated into the offense.
Even with Michael Thomas presumably back in the fold, there was still a gaping hole at the wide receiver position in the Big Easy. Long-time general manager Mickey Loomis has had zero issues spending high-end draft capital on WRs in the past, so it's not surprising the Saints traded up to draft Chris Olave at No. 11. The former Buckeye doesn't offer the same skill set as Thomas, but he can separate from defenders at an elite level downfield. Olave wrapped up his 2021 season in the 96th percentile in separation versus single coverage and caught seven touchdowns on throws of 20-plus air yards. Olave draws parallels to Calvin Ridley with his impressive route running ability. But like Ridley coming out of school, Olave doesn't offer much after the catch. His forced broken and missed tackle rate ranked 43rd among 43 qualifying wide receivers in the class. His yards after the catch per reception (4.2) ranked 37th. Without much YAC-ability in an offense that ranked fifth in that YAC/reception last season and a firm seat in the WR2 chair behind a healthy Thomas, I have trouble getting overly excited for Olave in New Orleans as nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
The Houston Texans traded multiple picks to move up for John Metchie during the 2022 NFL Draft in a similar fashion to how they acquired Nico Collins a season ago. The former Alabama wide receiver caught 96 balls for over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his final junior season. He just happened to be overshadowed by Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. But don't sleep on Metchie because he possesses a nice skillset that will translate well with the Texans. He's a savvy route runner that understands how to get leverage and create separation from defenders. His game reminds me of Eddie Royal. He probably won't ever be a true No. 1, but that doesn't preclude him from carving out a niche role starting from the slot.