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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2019 Draft Kit
This is going to sound crazy, but I'm still not sure people realize how good Elliott has been. That's partially because of his suspension and also because his offensive line is (rightly) given so much credit for his success. But just in case you're unaware, here's Elliott's 16-game pace for his entire career: 347 attempts, 1,619 rushing yards, 69 targets, 54 receptions, 480 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns. Even those numbers are skewed by the fact he only caught 58 passes in his first two seasons combined and only scored six rushing touchdowns last year. Elliott should be one of the first two players picked on draft day. If you're one of those owners who worries about backs breaking down, Elliott might scare you a little bit. He'll be 24 years old at the start of the season, in the prime of his career, but the Cowboys have ridden him hard. He had 354 touches as a rookie and 381 in 15 games last year. In his suspension-shortened season, he averaged 27 touches per game. That's a lot of exposure to big hits.
Conner gave ammo to the "running backs don't matter" crowd and made Le'Veon Bell look expendable in 2018. In just 13 games, he topped 1,400 yards, scored 13 touchdowns and finished as a top-six running back in both formats. Now Bell is gone (as is Antonio Brown), so Fantasy players shouldn't have the same anxiety about his future. The Steelers are one of the last remaining teams to eschew the dreaded committee approach at running back. That may not be great for Conner's long-term viability, but it's outstanding for his 2019 value. Expect 20-plus touches a game and another top-10 season. While Conner may have replaced Bell with relative ease, I wouldn't be quite as certain about him performing without Brown. This was one of the most successful offenses in the NFL largely because of the resources teams had to dedicate to stopping arguably the best receiver in the NFL. If JuJu Smith-Schuster struggles to fill Brown's shoes, the offense could sputter. Conner should also plan on seeing more bodies in the box now that the Steelers only have one other playmaker opposing defenses truly fear. There's also been whispers coming out of Pittsburgh than Conner could share the lead role with either Jaylen Samuels or Benny Snell.
I spent last offseason doubting whether Kamara could match his rookie-year efficiency. He didn't, but it barely mattered. It was largely because he scored an incredible number of touchdowns (18 on 275 touches). Here's the problem with doubting him again: He's an exceptionally talented back on one of the best offenses in the league. If anyone is going to continually smash efficiency expectations, it's probably him. Of course, the boost for Kamara could come from an increased workload, which would cover any drop in efficiency. Latavius Murray can handle Mark Ingram's role in the running game, but it's not hard to imagine Kamara seeing a small increase in touches and approaching 300 in 2019. He was on pace for 364 touches in four games without Ingram in 2018. If he comes close to that number he may just be the No. 1 running back. Kamara was fairly touchdown-reliant last year, at least for an elite running back. He scored once every 15 touches. Christian McCaffrey scored once every 24 times he touched the ball, Barkley scored every 23 touches, Elliott once every 42. If he regresses to McCaffrey or Barkley's rate, he's still probably a top-five back in PPR, but any more than that wouldn't make you feel very good about the price you'll have to pay for him.
McCaffrey answered the question of whether he could handle a feature role in 2018 and then some. He touched the ball 326 times and finished as the No. 1 running back in PPR formats. Despite that finish he won't likely go any higher than No. 3 overall and he may fall out of the top-five in some drafts. Over the past two seasons no running back has caught more passes than McCaffrey (187), and his rushing efficiency is boosted by the threat of Cam Newton as a runner. Those receptions give him a solid floor in PPR scoring. Barring an injury, it's hard to see how he doesn't finish as a top-five running back. If there is a case against McCaffrey it centers around his lack of rushing touchdowns and the health of Cam Newton. Newton takes a big share of the Panthers touchdowns each year, and that won't likely change unless this shoulder injury is more serious than we currently believe. But if Newton's injury is serious, running lanes could clog up for McCaffrey and the offense may not get into scoring position as often.
For the first time in a long time, the Bengals treated a running back like a true No. 1 in 2018, and Mixon responded with over 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns in 14 games. He averaged more than 20 touches per game and almost 5 yards per carry. He'll be one of the few workhorse backs left in the second round, with a proven ability in the passing game. The Bengals look like the worst team in their division, caught somewhere between tanking and striving for .500. The offensive line is below average and thin. It's a tightrope Mixon was able to successfully walk in 2018, but it's always a big ask for a running back to be great in Fantasy on a losing team with a bad offensive line.
Barkley has everything you want in your No. 1 running back: Exceptional talent, success in the passing game, and an enormous workload. His production was so evenly balanced as a rookie, it's hard to see how he'd be stopped. He ran for more than 1,300 yards. He caught 91 passes. He scored 15 touchdowns. And he did it all efficiently. Barkley's youth, skill and usage should make him a top-two pick for many years to come and an easy choice at No. 1 overall in Dynasty. This offense could be really bad. The Giants replaced Odell Beckham with Golden Tate, and they're either going to have Eli Manning or Daniel Jones at quarterback. It's really hard to be the best running back in Fantasy on one of the worst teams in football. Barkley's production and efficiency in the passing game took a major hit in the last four games of 2018 without Beckham. His catch rate dipped south of 60 percent and his yards per catch fell almost a full yard. He didn't score a receiving touchdown in those four games either.
Gase was reportedly not on board with paying a running back big money in free agency, but he says he is happy to coach Bell now that he is on the team. "Everybody can criticize the contract all you want, but he's here," Gase said. "When you get a chance to coach a great player, I'm excited for that opportunity." The coach also shot down chatter about the Jets trading Bell now that ex-GM Mike Maccagnan is out the door, calling the idea ridiculous. Despite the rocky offseason, Bell should be a workhorse in 2019.
The Cardinals are trying to move in the right direction and provide David Johnson with more help. Kliff Kingsbury will bring a modern offense to the team, the offensive line will be better (though maybe short of good), and they selected Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. And it's probably worth mentioning that in a down year last year, Johnson was a top-10 running back in both formats. He's a threat in both aspects of the game and should be the focal point of the Cardinals new offense. David Johnson's 2018 provides the case against looking at season-ending ranks. Yes, he finished top-10 in both formats. He also had seven games with fewer than 50 rushing yards and 10 games with fewer than 75 total yards. His best trait in 2018 was the fact that he stayed healthy for 16 games, which, of course, was not something he did in 2016 or 2017. The Cardinals are still likely to be a bad team and the offensive line will still be below average. It's hard to imagine an efficient season from Johnson, so he'll need another 300 touches and another year of good health to justify his ADP. With Kingsbury, Murray and the two receivers the Cardinals drafted, 300 touches doesn't seem near as likely as it once did.
Gordon missed four games last season and still finished as a top eight running back in both formats. That's something he's done three straight years despite playing 16 games just once. The Chargers offense evolved in 2018, and Gordon was more involved in the passing game, averaging 6.6 targets per game. If that trend continues in 2019 he could legitimately challenge to be the No. 1 overall and push towards 80 catches. Gordon gives you top-10 floor with an upside as high as almost any back in Fantasy. As I noted above, he's only played 16 games once in his career. Three times he's missed Week 15 and/or Week 16, which is quite obviously a problem. It's also concerning that he's had multiple knee injuries. Gordon isn't necessarily a big injury risk, but he also has more risk than any of the backs in front of him. It's also unclear how much of his increased role in the passing game was due to the Chargers loss of Hunter Henry. This is historically a team that leans heavily on the tight end in the passing game and last year that role was shifted to Gordon and Austin Ekeler. These concerns are enough to keep him behind McCaffrey and Kamara on draft day.
You could write thousands of words for or against Gurley and we probably will this offseason. But the case for is pretty simple: When he's been right he's been the most valuable player in Fantasy. Even last year he finished as the No. 1 back in non-PPR scoring despite playing just 14 games. In 2017 he outscored every other player at the position by four points per game in that format. The case for Gurley is you may just be drafting the best player in Fantasy Football after the first overall pick. We can't say for certain Gurley has arthritis in his knee. We can't say anything for certain because of how secretive the team and the player have been about his injury, or lack thereof. What we do know is the Rams gave him four carries in the Conference Finals against the Saints, and after two weeks of rest he only touched the ball 11 times in the Super Bowl. Something wasn't right, and we don't know if it's better. There's more than one area of concern here. He could have a chronic problem that completely derails his career; his knee could be weakened, priming him for a more serious injury in 2019; or he could be fine and the Rams could decide to limit him in the first half of the season in hopes of keeping him that way. All three of those possibilities are speculation, which is all we're left with at this stage. The fact that the Rams traded up to draft Darrell Henderson in the third round doesn't make you feel any better about this situation. The one thing we can say for certain is that if you're the type of player who doesn't want to lose his league in the first round, you're probably taking someone other than Todd Gurley.