-2018 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2018 Draft Kit
In a league leaning more and more toward committee attacks, Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell breaks the mold with absurdly large usage numbers. Starting with 2013 and including only the weeks he has been active during his five NFL seasons, Bell's carry shares are as follows: 77, 83, 83, 90 and 90 percent. He averaged 19.8 carries and 6.3 targets per game during those outings. Despite missing 18 regular-season games, Bell has ranked in the top 10 at the position in snaps in four different seasons. He missed one game last season but paced all running backs in snaps, touches, pass routes, carries and receptions. Only Todd Gurley II scored more fantasy points, and Bell has finished in the top three at the position three of the past four seasons. Bell should fall no further than second overall in 2018 drafts.
Gurley's roller-coaster career continued in 2017, as he exploded for a league-high 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage en route to finishing as fantasy's top-scoring running back. One year after averaging a dreadful 3.2 YPC, Gurley exploded for 4.7 YPC. Gurley was already a heavily utilized rusher, but he saw his receiving workload increase dramatically in 2017. He hauled in 64 passes for 788 yards after totaling 64 catches for 515 yards during his first two seasons. Only five backs ran more routes. Now a full-on, every-down workhorse in a high-scoring offense, Gurley is an elite fantasy option. He is in the argument as the #1 overall pick in most fantasy drafts.
Elliott was suspended for six games last season but was still his dominant self when active. Elliott was fantasy's No. 2 scoring back in 15 games as a rookie and was second during the 10 weeks he played in 2018. Despite sustaining that high-end fantasy production, Elliott's numbers did dip quite a bit. He averaged 5.1 YPC in 2016, but 4.1 YPC in 2017. He scored 16 touchdowns as a rookie but only nine last season. On the plus side, Elliott was still an absolute workhorse as a rusher (24.2 carries per game) and played a larger role as a receiver (3.5 targets per game was up from 2.5 in 2016). Elliott still doesn't see as much receiving work as other elite backs, but he handles enough overall volume to allow top-five numbers.
The Jaguars spent the fourth-overall pick on Fournette last season in order to lean heavily on their running back and elite defense. The plan worked. Fournette missed three games but still carried the ball 268 times (seventh most) for 1,040 yards (eighth) and nine touchdowns (third). Fournette finished seventh at the position in fantasy points per game. Fournette's weak YPC (3.9, including 3.3 during his final 200 carries) is a concern, though he did face an average of 7.1 in-box defenders (eighth highest). Fournette won't be quite as involved as a receiver as other top backs, but he's a top-end talent who has a shot to lead the NFL carries. That's enough to keep him in the RB1 mix.
The NFL's reigning offensive rookie of the year, Kamara quickly went from third-round pick to fantasy superstar. The Tennessee product was on the field for only 44 percent of the Saints' regular-season snaps, but his outstanding playmaking ability allowed him 728 yards on 120 carries (6.1 YPC) and a league-high 826 yards on 81 receptions (10.2 YPR). He ranked 24th at the position in touches (201) but ranked sixth in yards (1,554) and second in touchdowns (13). Kamara's absurd efficiency is unsustainable, but his late-season surge in usage suggests he'll see the boost in volume he'll need to continue producing strong RB1 numbers. The likely suspension for Ingram also means a tidy workload bump in the first few weeks of the season.
The Chiefs stole Hunt in the third round of last year's draft, and it didn't take long for the Toledo product to make a name for himself. He exploded for 246 yards and three touchdowns in his NFL debut and went on to rack up 1,782 yards and 11 scores on 325 touches. All ranked in the top five at the position. Hunt, who paced the position with 1,327 rushing yards, posted a 4.9 YPC (sixth best), including 2.3 yards after contact (seventh best). Hunt may not be able to keep up with the top backs in carries in the Chiefs' low-volume scheme (and will need more than six carries inside the 5-yard line), but coach Andy Reid said he plans to get Hunt more involved as a receiver. The talent/workload combination is enough to allow Hunt another strong RB1 season.