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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
The BIG DAWG KEEPS EATING! Some players are just built different. I don't know what else to say in regard to Henry. I don't foresee any slowdown from the Baltimore behemoth. Last year, he nearly rushed for 2,000 yards (1,921) and finished with 18 total touchdowns as the RB4 in fantasy points per game. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked third in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Henry is an RB1 until he hangs up the cleats. I won't bet against the king ever again.
Last year, Barkley finished the season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley's outlook for 2025. It's a similar conversation that we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should Barkley outside the top 3-5 running backs in preseason rankings? No. My bigger worry is Barkley's quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly's awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league's best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top 5 back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.
Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don't know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don't see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It's not like he's demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.
Gibbs was awesome last year as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The loss of David Montgomery for the final three weeks of the season helped him, but it's not like Giggs wasn't awesome before then. In Weeks 1-15, with David Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was the RB4 in fantasy points per game (18.9), averaging 16.1 touches and 103 total yards. In Weeks 16-18 (without Montgomery), Gibbs went bonkers with 32.6 fantasy points per game as he decimated opponents with 25.6 touches and 162.4 total yards per game. I'm not trying to detract from his season, but it helped. In Weeks 1-15, Gibbs still didn't hold the goal line or red zone role on the ground. During that stretch, Montgomery had 25 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line compared to 18 for Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data). Gibbs will be efficient with whatever workload he's allotted after he ranked first in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards per route run. He's a top-three back, no matter how ya slice it.
Robinson crushed last year as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. It was a tale of two halves. Atlanta began the season goofing around with his usage before they righted the ship. In Weeks 1-5, Robinson was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 87.2 total yards. In Weeks 6-18, he was the RB1 in fantasy points per game with 23.4 touches and 120.9 total yards per game. After Week 5, he saw his route share and target share jump from 54.5% to 60.4% and 10.7% to 13.4% (per Fantasy Points Data). If that usage continues in 2025, Robinson could be the RB1 overall this season. He posted strong tackle-breaking numbers last year, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. If Michael Penix can take this offense to another level, Robinson could be the Fantasy MVP this season.