-2017 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2017 Draft Kit
Bell was suspended for four games to start the 2016 season but still managed to finish fifth at the position in rushing yards, as well as second in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Bell has been on the field for at least 86 percent of the team's offensive snaps during 25 consecutive games in which he wasn't injured or limited (25 of his past 28 total). During those 25 games, he was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps and handled 22.2 carries and 6.7 targets per game. The heavy usage allowed him a top-14 fantasy week during all 12 of his outings last season. There's little reason to expect the 25-year-old to play a reduced role in 2017. His off-field antics are a concern, but Bell is too good to pass on early in the first round of your draft.
You'd think a second straight season with over 1,500 total yards and 13 total touchdowns would create demand for Devonta Freeman in Fantasy. Instead, there's worry about whether he'll stay hot. Tevin Coleman's rise in the Falcons offense meant over 50 fewer touches for Freeman in 2016. Coleman actually had just as many 10-plus Fantasy point games as Freeman, and he played in three fewer games. But Freeman averaged more than 2.0 Fantasy points per game more than Coleman in every format thanks to posting career-high averages in rushing (4.8) and receiving (8.6). If Freeman's going to remain a stud, he must maintain those lofty averages, find the end zone a bunch and outpace Coleman in touches, which he did for 18 of 19 games last year including the playoffs. It's a lot to ask, but Freeman deserves the benefit of the doubt given his recent success. He also enters a contract year, which should motivate him to play well. Bank on Freeman getting picked within the first 20 picks of every draft this summer, maybe even late in the first round.
Another year, another season of LeSean McCoy as a standout Fantasy running back. He was the No. 3 Fantasy running back in standard leagues in 2016 with 234 carries for 1,267 yards (5.41 yards per carry) and 13 touchdowns and 50 catches for 356 yards and one touchdown. McCoy scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 12 of 15 games (he missed one game with a hamstring injury) and even played through a dislocated thumb. He'll be 29 this year, so his time as a dominant Fantasy running back could be coming to an end, but he's still worth trusting this year. The return of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and the addition of fullbacks Patrick DiMarco and Mike Tolbert should help McCoy, as well as new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. Jonathan Williams is the handcuff for McCoy, but is only worth drafting with a late-round pick if you already have McCoy, given his limited track record. McCoy is a slam dunk first-round pick in all leagues, and he should be the No. 4 running back off the board behind Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott.
Melvin Gordon was a bust as a rookie in 2015, but he rebounded in a big way as a sophomore in 2016. And he should continue to post solid stats this year, especially with new coach Anthony Lynn having a background as a former running backs coach. Lynn will likely lean on Gordon, who was the No. 8 Fantasy running back in standard leagues last year with 254 carries for 997 yards (3.93 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns and 41 catches for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Gordon benefitted from Danny Woodhead going out for the season with a Week 2 injury. Woodhead is now in Baltimore. The Chargers don't have anyone on the roster to take Gordon off the field, and we consider him a standout No. 1 Fantasy running back coming into the season. He's worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2 in the majority of leagues, and he should continue to look like the running back we saw in 2016 and not the version who disappointed us as a rookie.
"Sophomore slump" was not in David Johnson's vocabulary in 2016, as he was the No. 1 Fantasy running back in all formats. We expect another solid campaign this year in 2017. Johnson was a Fantasy stud in every sense of the description last year with 293 carries for 1,239 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns, as well as 80 catches for 879 yards and four touchdowns on 120 targets. He averaged just over 23 touches a game in 2016, but Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has said he wouldn't mind giving Johnson close to 30 touches a game this season. We hope that's not the case because we don't want him to break down, but Johnson scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 15 of 16 games last season. The lone game where he was held to single digits was Week 17 when he suffered a knee injury, but he's fine heading into training camp and should continue to dominate. He's a top-three pick in any format, and he could easily be the No. 1 overall pick in the majority of leagues.
Can DeMarco Murray have another big season? If you listen to coach Mike Mularkey, you might think so. Mularkey said this offseason that Murray was his "workhorse" and wasn't worried about him breaking down or losing too much work to second-year power rusher Derrick Henry. But Murray, 29 years old, has 1,464 career carries and 271 career catches after just six seasons. Maybe he's not a candidate to break down, but he certainly isn't quite as fresh as he once was. That said, Murray has crossed the 1,400-total-yard and 10-touchdown marks in three of his last four seasons, benefitting from good offensive lines and run-oriented offenses like the one he'll be in this fall. That cannot be ignored either. In a perfect world, or in an auction, taking Murray and Henry as a tandem would be the easy move. But in drafts, taking both means spending two of your first six or seven picks on teammates. That's an expensive price to pay. You don't have to take both -- if you believe in Murray then you should grab him in late Round 2 or early Round 3. If you don't believe in Murray, then Henry should be high on your wish list with a Round 6 or 7 selection.
Elliott paced the NFL with 322 carries and 1,631 rushing yards while finding the end zone a total of 16 times last season. Not bad for a rookie. Elliott faced an average of 8.0 in-box defenders, which was fifth highest in the NFL. The 2016 fourth overall pick trailed only David Johnson in fantasy points despite being limited to 38 targets (33rd). Elliott's rushing prowess, combined with Dallas' terrific offensive line and run-heavy scheme, will keep him near the top of the running back rankings, but he's in for some regression to the mean in the scoring department (only 11 carries inside the 5-yard line). Elliott also will need more receiving work to maximize his fantasy contributions, which is very possible, following the departure of Lance Dunbar. Elliott is a strong RB1 in all formats and should be upgraded slightly in non-PPR.
It didn't take long for Jordan Howard to become the Bears' lead running back, and it didn't take him long to become a very attractive Fantasy option either. Rising quickly on the Bears' depth chart, Howard took advantage of a surprisingly good offensive line to churn out 11 games with at least nine Fantasy points over his last 13 games. He averaged 18.7 touches and 107.4 total yards per outing and totaled seven touchdowns. Best of all, Howard told CBS Sports from the Pro Bowl that he expects more work in 2017! Given the state of the Bears passing game, that might not be so far-fetched. One word of warning: the Bears' early-season schedule seems difficult, particularly a spell between Weeks 3 through 8 that include the Steelers, Packers, Vikings, Ravens and Panthers. Expect Howard to get picked between eighth and 15th overall in every draft this summer as a good No. 1 Fantasy running back.