-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Davis was a bust in 2022, but he has the chance to rebound this year -- at a cheaper cost -- since he remains a big part of Buffalo's offense as the No. 2 receiver opposite Stefon Diggs, and he still has Josh Allen on his side. He should be considered a post-hype sleeper candidate worth drafting as early as Round 7 in all leagues. His CBS Average Draft Position in 2022 was No. 60 overall, but he finished with just 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns and averaged 12.8 PPR points per game. That number is a little skewed because he had four games with at least 16 PPR points and six games with six PPR points or less. Davis can still be an excellent No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues who can win you a few weeks during the season with his big-play ability.
Collins' draft stock caught a little bit of helium last summer, but he was unable to live up to it in season. Collins hauled in just 57.8% of his 64 targets and only scored twice while aligning as an outside wide receiver on more than 90% of his snaps. He finished as a WR2 or better in PPR in just one game before his season ended short with injury in Week 13. Collins will once again have an opportunity to earn a massive snap share as the likely starting X receiver, but earning a target share will be more difficult with John Metchie, rookie Tank Dell and Robert Woods factoring into the mix. Rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on one receiver, so if an early training camp rapport is developed with C.J. Stroud, and if that rapport carries over to the preseason, Collins could return value if you draft him in the double-digit rounds.
The Panthers traded away DJ Moore in the trade to get the rights to Bryce Young, so they clearly had a need at receiver. Still, the signings of Adam Thielen and DJ Chark were thought to have made other needs more important. In the end, the Panthers went with Mingo and that could spell bad news for Marshall, who has flashed at times but never shown the consistency the Panthers have wanted from the position. He's now going to be in an absolute dogfight for targets and his ranking of WR66 is likely to slide even more now.
Moore's abbreviated sophomore season was impressive. In his seven full games, he garnered a 22.7% target share producing 1.62 yards per route run. He handled a 22% target per route run rate in that stretch. In his full games played, he averaged 12.6 (PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good for WR32 (PPR) in fantasy scoring over the entire season. There are still dominoes to fall in the Cardinals' passing attack. Will DeAndre Hopkins get traded (he could already be by the time you read this)? Will Kyler Murray play more than half this season (if that)? Moore is a WR4/5 that could easily walk into WR3 production.
Romeo Doubs impressing at OTAsRomeo Doubs has been shining over the first two weeks of OTAs: “by most accounts, nobody on the roster had a more impressive showing.” Fantasy ImpactDoubs was in Aaron Rodgers circle of trust early on in 2022, something that is extremely hard for rookies to accomplish. But after sustaining an injury and the rise of Christian Watson, Doubs faded as the season wound to a close. However, going into 2023, while Watson is the presumed WR1 of the Packers, the No.2 spot is Doubs to lose. Fantasy managers would do well to keep an eye out for him this off-season as a potential sleeper.
Romeo Doubs has been shining over the first two weeks of OTAs: “by most accounts, nobody on the roster had a more impressive showing.”
Fantasy Impact
Doubs was in Aaron Rodgers circle of trust early on in 2022, something that is extremely hard for rookies to accomplish. But after sustaining an injury and the rise of Christian Watson, Doubs faded as the season wound to a close. However, going into 2023, while Watson is the presumed WR1 of the Packers, the No.2 spot is Doubs to lose. Fantasy managers would do well to keep an eye out for him this off-season as a potential sleeper.
Dotson's overall rookie season numbers don't jump off the page. He was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). All of these figures paint an inaccurate picture of his true upside. After he returned from injury, the season's final five games offered a clearer view of what a breakout sophomore season for Dotson could look like. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at the helm in 2023 doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Dotson is a skilled wide receiver well-versed from his college days in dealing with pitiful quarterback play. Dotson is a WR4/5 that could take a huge leap in his second season. I won't rule out him giving Terry McLaurin a run for his money for the team lead in targets this season. Investing in talented second-year wide receivers are strong bets to make.
Smith-Schuster joined the Patriots in the offseason, his third team in as many seasons. While it is quite the downgrade to move from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones, Smith-Schuster does have a chance to replace Jakobi Meyers in a role that has averaged about seven targets per game over the past two years. Smith-Schuster has not produced a 1,000-yard season since 2018, but he was WR24 last year before he was sidelined by a concussion. He earned eight-plus targets in six of his first seven games with the Chiefs. Draft him as a low-end No. 3 WR in Round 8 or 9. For as long as he stays healthy he's likely to slightly outperform that cost.
Last year Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share and 107 targets. He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Why can't a talented first-round wide receiver match (or easily exceed) these volume numbers in his first season? Addison can. He absolutely can. Addison has ranked 22nd or higher in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade in each of his last two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. I don't see them dropping outside the top 5-10 teams this season in either category. Addison could be a WR2 in fantasy if he can pass T.J. Hockenson in the target pecking order.
The Giants selected Hyatt in the third round of the NFL Draft from Tennessee, and he could be an impact player right away. He's worth drafting with a late-round pick in all redraft leagues, and he's a second-round selection in rookie-only drafts for Dynasty leagues. The Giants have a crowded receiving corps with Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Parris Campbell, but none of those guys are stars, especially with Robinson and Shepard coming off injuries. Hyatt could establish himself as a go-to option for Daniel Jones, and hopefully that's the case in 2023. Hyatt won the Biletnikoff Award in 2022 when he had 67 catches for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns at Tennessee, and he could play inside and outside for the Giants, which is vital. The more versatile Hyatt is, the more likely he'll stay on the field, and that could lead to quality production in his rookie campaign.
If you're looking for a comp for Johnston, you could do worse than looking across the locker room at Mike Williams. Both are big-bodied receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft who have had some separation and route-running question marks. Williams averaged 71.7 yards per game at Clemson, and Johnston averaged 73 at TCU. The Chargers are hoping Johnston does a better job staying healthy, but they'd be thrilled if Johnston could give them what Wiliams has per game the last two years. In rookie drafts, Johnston is a surefire first-round pick in all formats who could go as early as No. 4 in one-QB leagues. In redraft, leave him for the double-digit rounds unless Williams misses time in training camp with his back injury.
After a promising start to his career in his rookie season, Elijah Moore had a rocky and underwhelming 2022. In the nine games, Moore played at least 70% of the snaps; he only saw a 13.2% target share, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate. In that sample, he only mustered 1.00 yards per route run. Woof! Those are atrocious numbers for a ballyhooed second-year receiver touted as the next rocket ship to the moon type player. His quarterback play was abysmal, but some blame for his production woes also lies at his feet. The big question is will he be a full-time player in 2023? Cleveland ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage in 2022, so worries are warranted. Cleveland will likely roll with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones when they go two wide, so the Browns' bump in 11 usage has to happen for Moore to actualize a ceiling. He's a risky dice roll in the later rounds of drafts that could pay off, but a lot has to move in his favor for him to resume his rookie season career trajectory.
To get excited about drafting Moore, you mostly have to overlook his rookie season, and there are good reasons to do that. He had only played wide receiver for three seasons before last year and Andy Reid's system is notoriously hard for young receivers to pick up. He's still the same guy who had 1,302 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in his final season at Western Michigan and got drafted 54th overall last year. While it definitely sounds like he's behind Kadarius Toney prior to the start of camp, Toney has done nothing to give you confidence he'll hold on to his position. Moore is available in the double-digit rounds of most Fantasy drafts and that's right where he belongs. Don't hesitate to pull the trigger starting in Round 11.
Jefferson missed most of the first half of the 2022 season and didn't even record his first catch until Week 10, but the second half may have been even more disappointing. Playing without Cooper Kupp, and mostly without Allen Robinson, Jefferson still saw just a 16.5% target share from Week 10 on and trailed Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell with a mediocre 1.43 yards per route run. While it's true that he was playing with backup QBs the whole time, we still would have liked to see Jefferson command more targets. He can be left on the waiver wire in redraft leagues until he proves something more, but he's a Dynasty hold at least until September.
Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack.
The initial reports on Gallup this offseason have been encouraging, and he could be a surprise Fantasy option in 2023. At best, Gallup is worth a late-round flier in all leagues, but most likely he'll be a waiver wire option during the season. While Gallup will have a prominent role for the Cowboys, it's a crowded receiving corps with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Gallup, who is a year removed from his ACL tear, will still command plenty of targets from Dak Prescott, but he'll have to prove himself to Fantasy managers after a down season in 2022. He started to come on late in the year, scoring at least 11 PPR points in three of his final seven outings, but he only averaged 30.3 yards per game and 10.9 yards per catch, which were both career lows. Everyone in Dallas is encouraged by Gallup this offseason, so keep an eye on him in training camp, and he could be a good receiver to have on your bench during the year.