-2019 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2019 Draft Kit
He's arguably the best quarterback in the history of the game and he's been freed from Mike McCarthy's offense. Even in a down year for Rodgers he had an 8.1 AY/A and threw for more than 4,400 yards. It's a new offensive philosophy and his coach says he wants to run the ball more. The team added no help at receiver and Davante Adams is the only proven receiver on the roster. If his pass volume drops and none of the young receivers improve, 2019 could actually be worse than 2018.
Ryan has legitimately been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL the past three seasons. Since the start of 2016, his 8.36 Y/A leads all quarterbacks (minimum 800 attempts). He has a system he's comfortable in and a fantastic receiving corps. Ryan is a surefire No. 1 quarterback that you don't have to pay a premium for. There is at least some reason for concern when it comes to Ryan's volume. In 2016 and 2017 he didn't top 540 attempts. That changed in 2019, but mostly because the Falcons defense was devastated by injuries. If the defense bounces back, Ryan may lose 75 attempts from 2018. That could cost him 600 yards. If he does lose volume, his case as a difference-maker comes down to touchdown rate, which has been all over the place the past four years. He's had two seasons below four percent and two at 5.8% or better. Over a season, that's a difference of at least 10 touchdowns.
Luck's return from his shoulder injury couldn't have gone much better from a Fantasy perspective. His Y/A, TD% and quarterback rating were all at or above his career norms. He also threw more passes than ever. Luck's weapons got even better in the offseason, with the addition of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell. It's all systems go heading into 2019, and Luck looks like a sure-fire top-five quarterback. There is probably still a slightly elevated re-injury risk for Luck. But the case against him comes down to whether you want to use a pick in the first five rounds on a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. There are just too many running backs and receivers you should take instead in this range. The difference between a top-five quarterback and a streamer isn't that great.
Russell Wilson should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this season, but will he be a top-five quarterback or closer to a top-10 option? His production in three of the past four seasons makes him closer to the elite end of the spectrum. Aside from 2016 when he played through a lower leg injury, Wilson has passed for at least 3,400 yards, 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions or less, as well as at least 376 rushing yards, three times since 2015. Last year, Wilson was the No. 8 Fantasy quarterback. But the reason for concern with Wilson is he passed for just 427 attempts, which was No. 20 in the NFL in 2018. And he's not expected to have his volume increase dramatically this season, especially with Doug Baldwin no longer on the team. The addition of rookies D.K. Metcalf and Gary Jennings will help, but it shouldn't be the deciding factor when drafting Wilson. As such, Wilson should be drafted with a mid-round pick in all formats. Wilson should have the chance for another outstanding campaign, but just be cautious because there could be limitations on his ceiling.
Carson Wentz has shown the ability to be a standout Fantasy quarterback when healthy, but health has been an issue for him the past two seasons. He suffered a torn ACL in 2017, and he's still dealing with a back injury from last year. Hopefully, he will be 100 healthy by the start of training camp, but in April it was reported that his back is still an issue. If he's fine before the season starts, consider him a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. He appeared in 11 games in 2018 and scored at least 20 Fantasy points eight times. Draft him with a mid- to late-round pick in all formats.
Jared Goff has improved in each of his three seasons in the NFL, and hopefully this will be his best year yet. But even if he plays just as well as he did in 2018, that would be just fine for Fantasy players. Goff was the No. 6 Fantasy quarterback last season, and he scored at least 20 Fantasy points in 10 games. He should get Cooper Kupp (ACL) back at 100 percent, and hopefully Todd Gurley (knee) won't have any issues by the time we get to Week 1. With Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, Goff has plenty of weapons, and he's worth drafting as a No. 1 quarterback in all leagues with a late-round pick.
He just gave us the single greatest season ever for a first-year starter. Isn't that enough? Mahomes has arguably the best set of weapons in the league, an offensive mastermind for a head coach and makes throws that most quarterbacks wouldn't even dream up. He outscored the No. 2 quarterback by almost six points per game in 2018. The difference between him and No. 12 (Kirk Cousins) was 11 points, or a good week from your flex. Rostering Mahomes is like starting an extra player each week. Mahomes is awesome, and he's my No. 1 quarterback in 2019, but he's going to regress. He has to. He had an 8.6% touchdown rate in 2018. You shouldn't expect better than 6.5%, which would have cost him 12 touchdowns last year. He probably won't average 8.8 Y/A again either. No one does. If we expect 8.0 Y/A, we're taking away almost 500 yards from last year. A projection of 4,600 yards and 37 touchdowns is still better than you'd project for any other quarterback, but it might not be worth a second- or third-round pick. If he doesn't have Tyreek Hill, he should fall even further than that.
If you play in a four-point per pass touchdown league, you should definitely consider making Watson your quarterback. He's the rare quarterback who can help you with his legs but still puts up very good passing numbers. If the offensive line is better and his trio of young receivers stays healthy, Watson could challenge for No. 1 overall in this format. The offensive line was terrible in 2018, and Watson runs so much that you have to be worried about another injury. Also, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee have given us no reason to believe they'll both be able to stay healthy, so that upside may not be realistic.
Mayfield was fantastic as a rookie. In his 13 starts he was on pace for 4,337 yards and 33 touchdowns. In the final eight games after Hue Jackson left, he was on pace for 4,508 yards and 38 touchdowns. You could make the argument he didn't need any type of boost at all. Then the Browns went out and got Odell Beckham. Mayfield is one of a handful of quarterbacks who has the upside to challenge Patrick Mahomes in 2019. It's still the Browns? Seriously, it's hard to find a bad thing to say about Mayfield right now. He does throw too many interceptions and there is some chance the league fares better against Kitchens offense with a half season of tape on it, but the talent the Browns have accumulated may make that a moot point.
The Cardinals selected rookie quarterback Kyler Murray at No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft from Oklahoma, and he could be a quality Fantasy option right away. A star in college as the Heisman Trophy winner, Murray could thrive in the NFL playing for coach Kliff Kingsbury, and he can show off his dual-threat skills right away. Though Josh Rosen failed in Arizona, the Cardinals improved their offensive line from 2018, as well as added new weapons in Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler to join David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Murray is worth drafting as a low-end starter in seasonal leagues with a mid- to late-round pick, and he's a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts. There's a lot to like about Murray as a Fantasy option in 2019.