-2019 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2019 Draft Kit
He has five straight seasons with at least 83 catches and at least 1,400 receiving yards. He's one of a handful of receivers who has a legitimate case to claim the mantle of "best wide receiver in the NFL". He has a talented quarterback in Matt Ryan, who has been with Jones through all of his success. Even the foot injury concerns seem to have passed with Jones playing at least 14 games in each of the past five seasons. The touchdown thing is super annoying. Jones hasn't scored more than eight touchdowns since 2012, and he's scored six or fewer in three of his past five seasons. It doesn't make any sense and I don't even like factoring it into my projections, but it's pretty hard to continue ignoring. The one thing I will say that could be a problem is the run/pass split of the team as a whole. The Falcons had been more run-heavy as their defense improved, at least until last year. But remember, half of their defense got hurt in the first month of the season. If that unit bounces back and Ryan throws less, it could be difficult for Jones to justify a first-round pick.
Adams has scored double-digit touchdowns each of the past three seasons but he took a massive step forward in 2018. For the first time in his career he got a full season of No. 1 workload with Aaron Rodgers under center and he looked every bit the part. Not only did the Packers not add any competition for targets, they actually let Randall Cobb walk. Adams should be amongst the league leaders in every receiving category including Fantasy points. He has an excellent argument for the No. 1 receiver overall and will be taken in the first round of most drafts. Adams averaged almost 30 yards per game more than he ever has in his career. He also posted a career-high catch rate. It's possible we see small regression in both areas. We also don't know exactly what the new offense is going to look like in Green Bay with its new coaching staff. It would be hard to see a downgrade in overall offensive efficiency from the past regime, but it's certainly possible the Packers don't plan on giving 170 targets to their No. 1 receiver. Adams is a safe bet to be a top-10 receiver in 2019, but you'll have to take him in the top three or four to get him.
Evans may have just had his most complete season as a wide receiver, and then the Buccaneers lost DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Evans caught 60 percent of his targets for the first time of his career and set a career best in yards per reception (17.7). He was just the third receiver in the past 10 years to average better than 11 yards per target (minimum 100 targets). Without Humphries and Jackson, Evans could see an increase in targets, and with Bruce Arians running the team, Tampa Bay could maintain its incredible efficiency from 2018. Evans was the No. 2 receiver in Fantasy in 2016, and he has a chance to challenge for No. 1 this year if everything goes right. There have been some efficiency concerns with Evans in the past, some struggles connecting with Jameis Winston, and a couple of really weird touchdown totals. He wasn't great in 2017 and only caught half of his targets in 2015. But these are relatively small concerns compared to the other receivers in his range. Evans is very likely to give you a top-12 season at receiver if Winston can acclimate to Arians' system fast enough to make this offense soar and Evans a star.
Over the past two seasons only Julio Jones has more yards than Hopkins. Only Michael Thomas has more catches. No receiver has more touchdowns or Fantasy points. Hopkins is a remarkable player who just set the record for the most catches in one season without a single drop. He has a talented young quarterback in Deshaun Watson and gets a huge percentage of his team's targets. If you're in the back half of the draft and Hopkins is still there, you should consider yourself lucky. The Texans enter 2019 with a couple of talented receivers other than Hopkins in Keke Coutee and Will Fuller. Neither has yet shown the ability to stay healthy in the NFL, but if they do it could put a small dent in Hopkins' target rate. That could be enough to knock him from his perch as the No. 1 receiver in Fantasy Football. The other concern is less likely, but could hurt Hopkins more. Watson's style as a quarterback and the Texans' terrible offensive line increase his injury risk. The team's backups are A.J. McCarron and Joe Webb. We've seen Hopkins succeed with some bad quarterbacks, but those two could make it very difficult for him to justify a first-round pick.
Thomas is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver on one of the most prolific offenses in football. His quarterback is a future Hall of Famer, and he catches everything. He smashed the record for the most receptions in the first three years of a player's career and led the league last year with 125 catches. As far as a "safe" No. 1 receiver goes, it doesn't get any safer than Thomas. Drew Brees has remained very efficient, but the Saints are doing their best to take work off the 40-year-old's plate. They've grown more run-heavy the past two seasons, and last year was the first time in a decade Brees didn't top 500 attempts or 4,000 yards. Thomas was successful despite the team's low pass total, but any further shrinkage in pass attempts is likely to come at his expense. That became even more true when the team signed Jared Cook this offseason. Cook isn't the caliber of player who actually threatens Thomas, but Brees hasn't had a tight end this talented since Thomas joined the Saints. At the very least it could cap his upside in the red zone, which has already prevented him from being the No. 1 receiver in Fantasy.
While he hasn't been as good as Thielen, there's an argument that Diggs is actually the most talented receiver in Minnesota. He's caught at least 67 percent of his targets each of the past three years and he's scored 13 touchdowns in his past 20 games. He's coming off a career-high in catches and yards as well. Diggs is an excellent choice in the third round if you start your draft with two running backs. I could just repeat the case against Thielen. Diggs will suffer from a low-volume pass attack in 2019 as well. The other problem for Diggs is that he hasn't been as efficient with his targets as Thielen. His catch rate and yards per catch were both worse in 2018, and he's more likely to draw the opposing team's best corner. Both of these receivers will be good in 2019 but it's hard to see either being great, or even as good as they were last year.
In virtually every way (other than touchdowns). Smith-Schuster was the best Steelers' receiver last season. He had more nine more catches than Antonio Brown on two fewer targets. He averaged more yards per reception. And most importantly, he's still the one in Pittsburgh. Back before Smith-Schuster, we saw Ben Roethlisberger target Brown 193 times in one season, and 181 in another. Without a star No. 2 on the field it should be no surprise if Smith-Schuster approaches those numbers and leads the league in targets. He may also lead receivers in Fantasy points. While it's true Smith-Schuster should see even more targets, you have to consider how much his efficiency may suffer. It's a lot easier to get open when the other team has to double-team Brown on the other side of the field. This could be a case of a downgrade in efficiency overruling an increase in volume. There are also reasons to be concerned about the age and health of his quarterback as well as the continuity in Pittsburgh as a whole. Smith-Schuster has as much upside as any receiver in football this year, but he's the riskiest of the top-five receivers.
We've always viewed Cooper as a supremely talented wide receiver who never quite gave us all we expected, which is really unfair considering he had 155 catches and more than 2,200 yards through his first two seasons. But he really put it together once he was traded to the Cowboys. In 11 games with Dallas he caught 66 passes for 896 yards and seven touchdowns. That 16-game pace would have smashed his best season in Oakland. Whether it was just a change of scenery or Cooper going to a new level at age 24, he looks primed to deliver on his promise in 2019. There really has been a lot of inconsistency in Cooper's career, and you don't exactly think of the Cowboys' offense as one that's going to produce big passing numbers. Ezekiel Elliott will still be the centerpiece of this offense that will still run almost as often as it throws.
Arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL has finally escaped Eli Manning and gets to play with one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league. Beckham is still just 26 years old and already has three seasons with 1,300 yards and 10-plus touchdowns on his resume. His new offense showed flashes of explosiveness once Baker Mayfield took over, and that was with Jarvis Landry as their No. 1 receiver. Speaking of Landry, he and Nick Chubb should help draw attention away from Beckham. On a per-game basis it's hard to find a more exciting receiver in football. And it's hard to imagine a more exciting landing spot for him than Cleveland. For one thing, you probably don't want to cite a 16-game pace for Beckham because he's played 16 games exactly once in his five-year career. Those injuries don't appear to be connected to each other so it may just be dumb luck, but it's at least something to remember. More concerning for me would be the uncertainty in Cleveland. The upside and talent is immense, but Mayfield's track record is about as long as that of Freddie Kitchens, which shows a propensity to spread the ball around. Landry led the team with 149 targets last year, but his target rate cratered when Kitchens and Mayfield took over. He had double-digit targets seven times in the team's first eight games, but not once with Kitchens calling plays. Beckham should certainly demand more attention than Landry, but it's not yet known if he'll receive the 10.5 targets per game he received in New York.
It's not hard to make a case for Antonio Brown in Fantasy Football. It's not that hard to make a case for him as the best receiver of his generation. He has six straight seasons with more than 100 catches. He has at least 1,400 yards or 12 touchdowns in all of those seasons. That's available in the late second round? What more convincing do you need? Obviously, the case against Brown starts with the fact he's no longer in Pittsburgh. Brown wasn't made by Ben Roethlisberger by any stretch of the imagination, but there's also a wide chasm between Roethlisberger and Derek Carr. Brown is the lone star on this offense, which means he'll get all of the attention from the defense. He's used to that, but he's not used to having a quarterback like Carr who wants to get the ball out as soon as possible. He'll also turn 31 before the season, and his yards per target in 2018 were lower than they've been since 2012. That won't likely improve with Carr throwing him the ball.