-2017 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2017 Draft Kit
By some measures, Jones was a disappointment last year, but it won't change how Fantasy owners view him this year. From 2015 to 2016 his targets dropped by over 30 percent, his receptions by nearly 40 percent and his yards by nearly 25 percent. Missing two games and being a decoy for another clearly played a role, but it was the evolution of the Falcons offense that really dinged Jones' stats. Matt Ryan didn't need to force him the ball as other Falcons players stepped up, especially in the end zone. There's a very real chance this continues, but not to the point where Jones' numbers decline further. Jones is a safe bet to be among the league leaders in catches and receiving yards, thus serving Fantasy owners safely as a No. 1 receiver. He'll be one of the first three receivers taken in every draft, likely anywhere from third to eighth overall.
Jordy Nelson was Fantasy's top receiver last year, racking up 200 Fantasy points over 16 games and posting 10-plus points in nine of them. It helped that the Packers threw 62.7 percent of the time thanks to a depleted run game. The Packers drafted a bunch of rushers to help improve their ground game, making it fairly likely that Nelson won't come close to the career-high 152 targets he had last season. Between that and big-time targets Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and new tight end Martellus Bennett, Nelson's workload could ease up a little. His age is another strike against him -- he's 32 years old. Luckily for Nelson, he has one big positive and he wears No. 12. So long as Aaron Rodgers is on the field, Nelson will have potential for a solid season. Bank on Nelson being one of the first eight receivers to get picked in Fantasy drafts with an early-to-middle second-round pick regardless of format.
The Bengals' 2016 season was marred by injuries and Green was caught up in the onslaught. After posting at least 1,000 receiving yards during his first six seasons, Green caught 66 passes for 964 yards and four scores in 10 games in 2016. He finished an NFL-best 70 percent of his 10 starts as a top-30 non-PPR fantasy receiver. He's finished top-nine at the position in PPR during three of the past five seasons, but has missed a total of nine games due to injury over the past three seasons. Green turns 29 years old this year and remains one of the best and most heavily targeted wideouts in the league.
There is very little reason to believe Mike Evans will slow down after his third consecutive 1,000-yard season and his second 12-score campaign. The arrival of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard in Tampa Bay shouldn't hurt him much -- if anything, they will force opponents from double-teaming Evans! Now maybe their arrivals will mean a dip in targets for Evans, but it should open him up for better efficiency after he caught just 55.5 percent of his targets last year. It'll also help him out in the red zone, where he's caught 15 of 27 career scores. Another year with 1,300 yards and nine or 10 scores should be in the offing. Evans will be a first-round pick in all formats, likely right after Odell Beckham.
You don't need some so-called Fantasy expert to tell you Antonio Brown is a great receiver to draft. Or that he's worth a first-round pick. Brown has delivered 10-plus Fantasy points in 70.2 percent of his games over the past four seasons, a great figure for a receiver. Things should get even better for him this year as the Steelers are expected to welcome back Martavis Bryant to their offense. Adding him to a mix that includes so many other multi-dimensional players will make it impossible for opponents to double-team Brown moving forward. It also won't hinder his targets -- he's averaged over 11 targets per game over the past four years and should be right in that neighborhood again in 2017, even with the Steelers' deep receiving corps. Brown's worth taking as soon as No. 4 overall in non-PPR leagues and potentially No. 1 overall in PPR formats.
Beckham's 2016 season started slowly, but he ended up posting career bests in both targets (167) and receptions (101). Beckham has now managed at least 91 receptions, 1,305 yards and 10 touchdowns during each of his first three pro seasons. He's finished as a top-seven fantasy wide receiver each of those years. Beckham is known more for his highlight reel catches, but he also ranked seventh in the NFL with 15 end zone targets last season (up from 11 in 2015). The 24-year-old superstar is just getting started and should only benefit from New York's offseason addition of Brandon Marshall and first-round pick Evan Engram. Beckham is a low-risk, high-ceiling pick early in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Michael Thomas has sky-high expectations coming into this season after doing better than anyone could have imagined as a rookie. Thomas actually led the Saints in targets, catches and touchdowns in 2016. That was enough for the coaching staff to trade away receiver Brandin Cooks and hand the 6-foot-3 behemoth the No. 1 role in the offense. With Drew Brees quarterbacking, that's a very good thing. There's actually reason to believe Thomas' stats will improve in 2017 now that he'll see more targets with Cooks gone. He also won't see a lot of double-teams since the Saints still have Willie Snead in the slot and burner Ted Ginn playing the other side of the field. It's a sort of perfect storm for Thomas, who should end up going in Round 2 in all drafts as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver.