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Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
What else is there to say about Cooper Kupp's historic 2021 campaign? The guy was essentially lapping the other wide receivers, finishing No. 1 overall in points per game, receiving yards (1,947) and target share (31%) with over 200 targets total in 21 games played. New quarterback Matthew Stafford elevated Kupp back inside the top-5 fantasy WRs - as he previously was in 2019. Stafford's arrival in L.A. was the code to cracking Kupp's untapped potential especially with touchdowns. After catching just three the year prior, Kupp led the league with 16 TD scores - a feat that has happened only six times since 2007. However, regression will also certainly hit Kupp's production in 2022, just because it's near impossible for him to repeat his once-in-a-lifetime production. Of the five WRs that caught at least 16 touchdowns, they averaged just 6.6 TDs the following season. Only two (Davante Adams, Randy Moss) were able to haul in double-digit scores.
2021 was a somewhat odd season for Stefon Diggs as his fantasy production took a step back from his first season in Buffalo. His 29% target share fell to 24% as did his yards per route run (2.5 versus 1.8). This resulted in Diggs finishing with just two games with at least 90 receiving yards, a dramatic decrease from his ten 90-plus yard outings during the 2020 regular season. He finished as a top-15 WR just once through the first nine weeks of the season but improved down the stretch as Buffalo's offense hit its stride. He had three top-10 finishes as the WR8 in fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (14.8). Still, top-5 upside still exists with Diggs in this explosive Bills offense even if his target share holds at 24% in 2022. Because his command of high-value targets in the Buffalo offense was unmatched by almost every other WR in the NFL. He was one of just two WRs to hit over 2,000 air yards (Justin Jefferson). Diggs also commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) during the regular season - six more than the next closest receiver (Justin Jefferson).
Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the league. He has the most receiving yards in NFL history (3,016) in a player's first two seasons and is PFF's second-highest-graded receiver over that span (91.7). The Minnesota Vikings wide receiver finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). Jefferson was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league's third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%).
Deebo Samuel made me pay the price for overlooking him, as the talented wideout finished last season as the WR2 overall and in points per game (18.8). His receiving production alone would have him placed inside the top-10. But there's reason to believe that Samuel won't be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn't come as a surprise considering nearly 30% of Samuel's fantasy points came from rushing alone.
Ja'Marr Chase broke Justin Jefferson's record for most receiving yards by a rookie, finishing 2021 as the WR5 in fantasy points per game and the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game. Only Deebo Samuel scored more fantasy points above expectation (+74.3) than Chase - a testament to his home-run hitting ability. Chase's 18.0 yards per reception ranked second-best in the NFL behind only Samuel. The Bengals wide receivers' dominance continued in the postseason with back-to-back 100-yard games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chase commanded a 27% target share when it mattered most during postseason play, a 5% increase from his regular season target share.
Mike Evans commanded just a 16% target share throughout the regular season and playoffs, but still finished eighth in both fantasy points per game and overall in half-point scoring. The Buccaneers wide receiver achieved his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season and set a new career-high with 14 touchdown grabs, breaking his record from 2020. Double-digit touchdowns accompanied by a low target share is usually a sign to fade a wide receiver, but that's hardly the case in a pass-happy offense led by Tom Brady.
Hill appears on this stud list not necessarily as a recommended fantasy target -- but simply as validation that he remains a top 10-12 fantasy WR option. And is by definition a fantasy "stud". Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. While he he came in slightly under expectations, the 'Cheetah' wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2). While his upside is diminished by the trade to Miami, he still is going to be heavily targeted and new Miami coach Mike McDaniel is certain to find innovative ways to get him the ball (as he did D. Samuel in San Francisco). Still, given many concerns (see the "Dud" section) we recommend letting someone else in your fantasy league over-draft him due to name recognition.
The 2021 season represented the latest installment of Keenan Allen just being straight a baller and one of the most perennially underrated wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 100-plus passes for the fifth straight season and finished as the WR14 overall and in fantasy points per game (12.8). The Chargers slot receiver remained Justin Herbert's go-to option as his 17th-ranked 22% target share led the Chargers. But it's worth noting that Mike Williams out-scored Allen in half-point scoring in the season's totality, and that Allen posted his lowest yards per route run (1.78) since 2014.
A healthy Davante Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018, and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29. Adams' high level of play won't stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. But he is familiar with Carr from their 2 years together in college, remained elite last year and is getting paid like an alpha WR. While we're projecting his volume and production to decline a bit from last season, Adams still looks like a locked-in WR1 with top 5 upside in Vegas.