This is the third of three features that I have done this pre-season regarding an analysis of fantasy Wide Receivers.

In the first feature, I looked at the empirical receiving data from 2023 (in terms of targets, receptions and fantasy points) to help build a model (or at least a starting point) for ranking the fantasy wide receivers headed into 2024. In the second featured I analyzed Sophomore Wide Receivers (from the Class of 2023).

Today I will look closely at what I call the QB-to-WR Index. This index attempts to build a model whereby we can tie a WR's predicted performance to that of his corresponding QB.

More specifically, like the first feature, this feature is built around a number of top-40 charts. My goal is to use the data represented in these tables to begin a guided tour that will hopefully get us to our destination: an initial ranking of fantasy wide receivers based on their own data elements from last year as well as data associated with the QBs who will be tossing them the ball in 2024.

The charts include the final 2023 rankings of wide receivers in the following categories: WR Fantasy Points (based only on receiving factors), WR Fantasy Points Per Target (again, based only on receiving factors), WR Team Share, QB Fantasy Points (based only on passing factors), and QB Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt (again, based only on passing factors).

Note that the tables below reference the 2023 team for which each player played.

Lets start by simply looking at the wide receivers who scored the most points in fantasy in 2023. Note that the point totals listed below represent both standard scoring (1.0 point for each yard rushing/receiving and 6 points per touchdown).

WR Fantasy Points - Receptions Only

Why This May Be Helpful: Well, this is pretty obvious, as it lays out the top fantasy performers at the WR position in 2023. The caveat is that I have removed fantasy production that did not come from the passing game. That is because, stats outside of the passing game would not factor into the QB-WR Index I am looking at here. Hence, guys like Deebo Samuel who saw a great deal of production in the running game take a hit.

Aside from the usual studs, there were a number of surprise players such as Nico Collins and Brandon Aiyuk who both posted start-worthy numbers -- that is, finished as at worst a WR2 in 12-team leagues -- despite only receiving a shade over 100 targets. Speaking of which... note that, for example, Calvin Ridley did indeed finish as WR17 in standard formats, making him a genuine fantasy WR2 despite the perception that he was a bit of a "bust" in 2023.

WR Fantasy Points Per Target

Why This May Be Helpful:The Points Per Target value was rounded to two digits to the right of the decimal, but all sorting was performed prior to the rounding -- and no two players had an identical value prior to the rounding. That is, there were no ties despite the identical values listed above -- and the players are all listed in the correct order.

After clarifying all that, I must say that this is one of my favorite statistics when looking at fantasy wide receivers as it truly measures which players made the most (fantasy points) of the opportunities presented to them (targets). The key to identifying fantasy relevance is to identify which players appear on this Fantasy Points Per Target chart as well as the Total Targets chart. This will present you with the list of players who operated at a high fantasy level due to both volume and production. In the previous section I already provided a bit of a teaser when pointing out that Aiyuk and Collins were both elite fantasy WR options, despite limited target volume. This graph bears that out. Also, for a 2nd season in a row, Gabe Davis was a PPT king, despite the notion that he drops too many passes.

But Be Careful: This stat can be heavily influenced by a couple of big plays if the receiver has an inordinately small sample size. That would be the case here with Davis, Tank Dell, Tee Higgins, and Rashid Shaheed who all received over 65 targets, which is enough to make us take notice -- but also probably not enough to make an assertion that they deserve to be over-ranked as fantasy WR1.

WR Team Share

Why This May Be Helpful:What this does is emphasize which receivers were the favorite targets of their respective teams and became the apple's eye of their quarterback.

It is not surprising to see at the top of the list Adams, Hill and Lamb. What is a bit surprising in #8, Garrett Wilson who managed to earn the lion's share of the Jets' targets despite having one of the worst revolving-door situations at QB in 2023.

But Be Careful:I suppose the value from a fantasy perspective here lies in identifying those teams which may evolve into a more pass-friendly offense in 2024 or whose QB situation may be better. (Wilson?)

Conversely, be careful to look closely at teams that added immediate reinforcements -- or players who have moved on. Keep a close eye on free agency to see what moves may have the greatest impact.

QB Fantasy Points - Passing

Why This May Be Helpful:

Now, instead of looking at each WR's stats, we are looking at each team's passing production as a whole. This gives us an understanding of which offenses were more pass-centric -- and which ones provided the best opportunity for fantasy production. It makes sense then that our top passing offense was Dallas as Dak Prescott had a career year in 2023 in terms of passing yards and TDs -- and CeeDee Lamb is also the WR1 in many rankings heading into 2024. Note that the Bengals come is at #3, despite the fact that Joe Burrow missed a good part of the season. The fact that Jake Browning was able to keep this offense afloat is a testimony to Zac Taylor's system -- which can also be said of the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan who came in at #2 with "Mr. Irrelevant" Brock Purdy at QB. The key for both teams is their ABUNDANCE of weapons, especially at the WR and TE positions.

But Be Careful: First, this metric looks at team passing stats rather than just individual QB production -- and this production is based only on 2023 numbers. So, for example, we see that the Jets ranked near the bottom in receiving production, which is unlikely to be the case in 2024 if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy.

Note also that this production is passing only. I mention that because WRs are only impacted by a QB's passing stats -- not his rushing stats. That explains why J. Hurts, a top 3 fantasy QB in almost every format in 2023, represents a Philly team whose overall passing offense comes in at only 19th.

QB Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt

Why This May Be Helpful: Our first passing chart was based on production and not coincidentally volume. This one is more based on efficiency. That is QUALITY over QUANTITY. So, for example, we see that the 49ers with their highly effective and QB-friendly offense ranked 1st on our list here, even though their balanced approach to offense assured that they were not among the league leaders in passing volume. Meanwhile, note how amazing it is that the Dallas ranks #2 here and #1 in the previous chart -- that just goes to show how special last season was for Dak Prescott. The same came be said of Miami, which ranked in the top 5 on both charts. It makes sense that head coach Mike McDaniel is a disciple of Shanahan's.

But Be Careful:Much like the Points Per Target matrix, which is an effective measurement for determining quality, there are drawbacks. Given that the passing metric is season-long and team-wide, I don't think that sample size is as much of an issue as it is when we look at WR production on a per target basis. Still, volume MUST be taken into consideration. In fantasy you will not win based on style points or who-did-what on a per play basis. You win based on production. So it makes little sense to use this chart outside of the context of the first chart as well. In fact, that is exactly how I would use it in helping to identify the receivers who are in the best position to succeed thanks to their quality at QB.

Also, simply because a team has an elite QB with a highly productive passing game, that does not mean that every receiver on the team is a serious fantasy option. The obvious example of this is Kansas City. A very strong argument could be made that Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league. The charts here confirm this. However, the target share is such that the offense flows through Travis Kelce with the various receivers receiving small-time shares. Hence I could not rank any KC wide receiver as a WR1 or even WR2 in fantasy. The same would appear to be true of the 2024 Bills, as Josh Allen is QB1 in many rankings -- but will be without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in 2024 and no longer has a bona fide alpha WR as his disposal.

Finally, the QB-WR Index

Why This May Be Helpful:This combined series of metrics takes into account all of the following: WR Volume, WR productivity and corresponding passer effectiveness. While it does not serve as a true ranking of fantasy WRs, it does provide a decent ballpark and provides an additional perspective when trying to decide between two WRs that you have ranked closely together. For example, this will help us identify receivers who have moved on from a team that was less prolific in the passing game to a more pass-friendly team (and vice versa).

Of interest is that in our first segment of purely WR metrics, Tyreek Hill ranked #1 -- and he ranks #1 here as well. Maybe there is something to that. It stands to reason that Hill is heavily targeted in the 4th most prolific passing offense with the 4th most efficient QB and is himself highly efficient on a per-target basis. There is a reason why he and CeeDee Lamb are neck-and-neck as the first WR to be drafted in fantasy this season.

Another thing I can't help but notice is how closely San Francisco receivers Samuel and Aiyuk are ranked. Note that Aiyuk's stock has fallen a bit (to the point where he is being drafted as a WR2 in fantasy) due to lingering questions about where he will be playing this year. If he does get traded (presumably to Pittsburgh) that would definitely impact the value of both Deebo Samuel AND Aiyuk.

But Be Careful:Like I said, it does NOT represent a true WR ranking. For example, in most drafts you will not see Courtland Sutton drafted ahead of Ja'Marr Chase. First, Chase's numerical analysis takes a hit because he played a significant part of the 2023 season without Burrow at QB. Note also that Justin Jefferson --sure to be drafted as a WR1 in fantasy -- ranks BEHIND teammate Jordan Addison. How can that be? Well, Addison was a boom-or-bust TD machine (with 10) in 2023, whereas as productive as Jefferson was, his 5 TDs were a bit ho-hum, which impacts his metrics.

Another thing to be cautious of is that this exercise relies solely on 2023 production. So guys who had off-years or missed the season entirely are missing from these metrics. Likewise, there is no accounting for rookie players either.