This is the first of three features that I will be doing this pre-season regarding an analysis of fantasy Wide Receivers.
In the two future segments I will analyze Sophomore Wide Receivers (from the Class of 2023) and look closely at what I call the QB-to-WR Index.
In this feature, I will attempt to look at the empirical receiving data from 2023 (in terms of targets, receptions and fantasy points) to help build a model (or at least a starting point) for ranking the fantasy wide receivers headed into 2024.
More specifically, this feature is built around a number of top-40 charts. My goal is to use the data represented in these tables to begin a guided tour that will hopefully get us to our destination: an initial ranking of fantasy wide receivers.
The charts include the final 2022 rankings of wide receivers in the following categories: Fantasy Points, Receptions, Targets, Team Share, Conversion Rate, and Fantasy Points Per Target.
Note that the tables below reference the 2023 team for which each player played last season.
Lets start by simply looking at the wide receivers who scored the most points in fantasy in 2023. Note that the point totals listed below represent both standard scoring (1.0 point for each yard rushing/receiving and 6 points per touchdown) as well as point per reception (PPR) -- standard PLUS one bonus point per reception totals. The data is sorted by PPR.
Fantasy Points
Observations:
There is nothing truly earth-shattering here, as when we look at the total numbers at a high level, we simply see the top 40 fantasy WRs from last season. Obviously most of these players will be high in the 2024 rankings with the presumption that they will have another successful fantasy season.
Aside from the usual studs, there were a number of surprise players such as Puka Nacua, Nico Collins and Jordan Addison who all posted start-worthy numbers -- that is, finished as at worst a WR2 in 12-team leagues -- but were largely overlooked last year in fantasy drafts. Speaking of which... note that Steffon Diggs and Ja'Marr Chase did indeed finish as WR 11 and WR13 respectively in standard formats, making them genuine fantasy WR1-2 despite the perception that they were "busts" in 2023.
Some of the more disappointing players were Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson who were typically drafted with high selections in fantasy drafts yet seriously under-performed (in many cases due to injury).
Receptions
Observations:
Receptions are key because not only do they represent opportunities for yards and TDs -- but they also directly correlate to fantasy points in PPR (Point Per Reception) formats.
A good example of the variation in the two formats is Tyreek Hill who finished essentially 2nd (behind Cee Dee Lamb) in our first chart in terms of standard scoring -- and was also 2nd (again, behind Lamb) in receptions and also PPR scoring.
Note that Lamb was the unquestioned top dog in both formats and reception totals, which is why you are rightfully seeing him ranked as WR1 in most formats.
What does that mean?
Make sure you look closely at the scoring rules in your league. If it is PPR then players like Lamb and Hill are even more valuable. I am talking valuable enough to draft in the top 3 picks as opposed to waiting until later in the 1st round. Even a receiver like Michael Pittman is worth picking no later than early in the 2nd round in PPR formats.
Targets
Observations:
In a way, targets are even more interesting numbers to look at than receptions. I think of a reception as being the successful outcome of a target. Targets represent opportunities.
The mantra in fantasy, of course, is not to assume that opportunity leads to production. While that is also true with the targets, of course, it makes sense that there is a direct correlation to receivers who were heavily targeted in the passing game with those who had strong fantasy seasons.
Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett, and Drake London are the only receivers among our top 25 most-targeted, who did NOT also make the top 25 list in fantasy points scored.
From that perspective, these players had the most disappointing seasons of all, because the opportunities were there. Moreover, since they failed to produce on the volume of opportunities with which they were presented, there is a chance that they will see a significant decline in opportunities (targets) this year. Take Garrett Wilson. His situation may be unique given his huge volume with minimal results (and admittedly horrific QB situation), but the point must be made that receivers who are targeted a lot (and may even catch high percentage of their targets) may not necessarily be fantasy studs.
Team Share
Observations:
I find this chart to be more interesting than necessarily useful from a fantasy perspective. What it does is emphasize how important that a given receiver was to his team in terms of the percentage of targets went his way.
What this does is emphasize not only which receivers were the favorite targets of their respective teams -- but which ones became the apple's eye of their quarterback.
It is not surprising to see at the top of the list Adams and Hill. What is a bit surprising in #7, Michael Pittman who led the Colts with over 30% of the team's targets.
I suppose the value from a fantasy perspective here lies in identifying those teams which may evolve into a more pass-friendly offense in 2024 or whose QB situation may be better.
I'll look at that more closely in a future installment on Taking a Look at the QB-to-WR Index. So be on the lookout for that segment in the next week or so.
Conversely, be careful to look closely at teams that added immediate reinforcements -- or players who have moved on. Keep a close eye on free agency to see what moves may have the greatest impact.
Conversion Rate
Observations:
Think of this as the list of receivers with the best batting average. That is, the receivers who converted the greatest percentage of their at-bats (targets) into hits (receptions). For this exercise, I have excluded players who did not have at least 75 targets.
I must admit that I was rather surprised to see the top 10 list. It is especially interesting that Robinson ranked #1. Still, Lamb's presence in the top 5 here -- especially given his ridiculous volume -- is yet another sign that he is THE MAN headed into 2024.
Fantasy Points Per Target
Observations:
The list above is for a minimum of 75 targets. The Points Per Target value was rounded to two digits to the right of the decimal, but all sorting was performed prior to the rounding -- and no two players had an identical value prior to the rounding. That is, there were no ties despite the identical values listed above -- and the players are all listed in the correct order.
After clarifying all that, I must say that this is one of my favorite statistics when looking at fantasy wide receivers as it truly measures which players made the most (fantasy points) of the opportunities presented to them (targets). The key to identifying fantasy relevance is to identify which players appear on this Fantasy Points Per Target chart as well as the Total Targets chart. This will present you with the list of players who operated at a high fantasy level due to both volume and production.
Using such a formula gives us the following players who had the highest combined score on both charts:
1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown
4. Mike Evans
5. Nico Collins
6. DJ Moore
7. AJ Brown
8. Brandon Aiyuk
9. Puka Nacua
10. Kennan Allen
11. DeVonta Smith
12. Ja'Marr Chase
13. Stefon Diggs
14. Jordan Addison
15. Rashee Rice
16. DK Metcalf
17. George Pickens
18. Chris Olave
19. Adam Thielan
20. Courtland Sutton
21. Amari Cooper
22. Justin Jefferson
23. Jakobi Meyers
24. DaVante Adams
25. DeAndre Hopkins
26. Deebo Samuel
27. Jaylen Waddle
28. Michael Pittman Jr.
29. Calvin Ridley
30. Jayden Reed
31. Tyler Lockett
32. Brandin Cooks
33. Romeo Doubs
34. Garrett Wilson
35. Terry McLaurin
36. Chris Godwin
Obviously this is far from scientific and fails to take other key factors (such as injuries, possibility of unusually bad/good season, new team, etc.) into account. But I think it represents an interesting and defendable baseline.