This is the second of three features that I will be doing this pre-season regarding an analysis of fantasy Wide Receivers.

In the first segment we looked at devising a formula for ranking 2024 wide receivers based on various metrics from last season. This time we will analyze Sophomore Wide Receivers (from the Class of 2023). Next time I will look closely at what I call the QB-to-WR Index.

Tier One

Puka Nacua

I wish I could tell you that I pegged Puka Nacua to be an immediate superstar in the NFL -- but I barely had him ranked heading into his rookie season last year. In my defense, scouts and GMs in the NFL got in wrong too, as Nacua was the 14th WR drafted in what was considered a bit of a down-year for receivers coming out in the draft. The Rams selected him in the 5th round (177th overall). Nacua had posted decent numbers at BYU (he played at Washington for two years prior to transferring to BYU to play in 2021 and 2022), but nothing jumped out for the casual observer. At first glance, his combine numbers were rather ho-hum (4.57 40-yard-dash). However, closer inspection showed better short area quickness -- and the best "Gauntlet" time of the class. At any rate, Nacua rewarded the Rams for rolling the dice with that late 5th round selection by posting some of the best numbers of any rookie WR EVER. Nacua caught 105 passes for 1486 yards and 6 TDs.

The keys to Nacua's breakout last year were his outstanding route running, his timing with Matthew Stafford and his penchant for taking advantage of both Cooper Kupp's absences and Kupp's ability to draw double coverage. Understandably, Nacua's numbers were better without Kupp (13.0 targets and 23.8 PPR points per game in Weeks 1 through 4) than with Kupp (8.5 targets and 15.7 PPR points per game from Week 5 on). That should set a realistic expectation on what to count on from Nacua in his second season, which frankly is still quite excellent considering the lack of elite-tier receivers in Fantasy. It helps that the Rams offense might be even better this year considering their O-line enhancements and Stafford entering the season healthy. I have him ranked as the 6th best WR in fantasy, which sets him up to be a borderline 1st/2nd round pick in 12-team fantasy leagues. That is pretty consistent with his market value of WR7 in ADP (I have him ranked ahead of A.J. Brown, whom ADP has at WR6).

Tier Two

Jayden Reed, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell

Given that Nacua's explosion upon the scene was a huge surprise -- and the fact that he is the ONLY receiver I see as a bona fide WR1 in fantasy, maybe the draftniks were right about last year's class being below average. That said, I do see 2-3 guys that I believe will be plugged into line-ups every week.

Before I start in on Jayden Reed, let me say that I am admittedly MUCH higher on him than the market currently dictates. More specifically, I have him ranked as my WR16 for fantasy, which is way ahead of his current WR34 ADP value. That is also consistent with my man-crush on QB Jordan Love, whom I have ranked as my QB7.

Reed made an impact in his rookie season, as a primary slot receiver for the Packers. Despite not always playing a full-time role, he was heavily targeted, with a 25% target rate per route run and just under 2 yards per route run. Reed led all Packers wide receivers in points/game with 10.6 and ten touchdowns. He finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his games (12th) and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap.

Given that I expect his snap count, targets and reception totals to increase in his 2nd year in the league, which also happens to be Love's 2nd year as a starter, I have Reed circled as a true breakout candidate in 2024. For example, if Reed increases his 64-reception total in 2023 to, say, 80 receptions, (at the pace he exhibited last season) that would place him in the 1,000-yard range with a possible double-digit TD total. Let's also not forget that Reed was a factor in the rushing game last season too with 119 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. A Deebo Samuel role for him is not out of the realm of possibility.

Zay Flowers quickly established himself as Lamar Jackson's go-to receiver in Baltimore, securing a 24% target share. He led the Ravens in air yards/target share, accumulating over 1,000 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in 18 games. However, his final rankings as WR29 overall and WR31 in points/game hint that he may have underperformed relative to his opportunities. When Mark Andrews was active in the lineup (Weeks 2-10) Flowers averaged 8.2 points/game with a 22% target share. When the TE missed, Flowers posted a 24% target share and 13.2 points/game (WR14).

I expect Flowers and Lamar to build upon last season's chemistry and for Flowers to remain the primary deep threat. I have no problem going with Flowers as a WR2 in fantasy, as I have him ranked WR17. If you like him as much as I do, you can probably stay patient and acquire him a round (or two) later given that his ADP is currently WR27.

Tank Dell figures to be one of the big wildcards of the 2024 season as he enters the season with a great deal of uncertainty. How so? Well, first, Dell's rookie campaign was cut short due to a severe fibula injury he sustained last December. Second, he sustained a left leg wound as an innocent bystander during a shooting in late April. Third, the team traded a 2025 second round draft pick to Buffalo Bills for Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs. With Nico Collins already tabbed as the team's #1 WR, the depth chart could get a bit murky.

The good news is that Dell's already back on the practice field, running routes and seems to have been an unrestricted participant in OTAs. So he appears to have already recovered from the fibula injury he suffered last December, and the gunshot wound appears to not be a factor at this time. From a production standpoint, Dell did not need much time to get acclimated as a rookie: he was targeted 10 times in Week 2 (with 7 receptions for 72 yards and a TD). He was even better the following week, exhibiting big-play ability with 5 receptions for 145 yards and a TD. After a bit of a dry spell, he picked up the pace and was targeted at least 8 times in each game after Week 8... until his season-ending injury. He also scored at least one TD in each of those 4 games between week 9 and week 12 (the game in which he was injured). If I were 100% convinced that he will enter the season healthy, I would be inclined to rank Dell as a top WR2 for fantasy (ahead of Jayden Reed). The market clearly has factored in those injury concerns, as he currently ranks as WR29 in ADP. Rather than a WR3 or flex play, I am a bit more bullish on him, as I see him as more of a borderline WR2/WR3. That is, if you stock up on RB/TE/QB early, Dell could be a gamble as a WR2. Remember, though, if you go that route, just be aware that he could be off to a slow start, so be sure to stock up on mid-tier WRs (possibly including Stefon Diggs) to hedge your bet.

Tier Three

Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Let's start with Jordan Addison, who was arguably the top rookie fantasy WR in 2023 after Puka. In fact, Addison out-paced Puka and all other rookie WRs with 10 TDs on the season. The issue is that the QB situation will be much different in Minnesota this year as Kirk Cousins has moved on to Atlanta. Note that 7 of Addison's 10 TDs came in the first 8 weeks when Cousins was the QB. After Cousins went down for the season, the QB situation became a real mess (Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs). So it is hard to place blame on Addison for underwhelming stats in the second half of the season. And, it is that QB situation, which COULD rear its ugly head again in 2024 with journeyman Sam Bradford and/or rookie JJ McCarthy calling signals that is the real concern.

Still, the promise of Week 14 in which Addison caught all 6 of his targets for 111 yards and 2 TDs (with Nick Mullens tossing him the ball) that shows us what Addison is capable of with even remotely competent QB play. It is this promise (coupled with my belief that the rebuilding Vikings will find themselves in plenty of shootouts this season where they will be playing from behind and potentially racking up garbage-time stats) that his me ranking Addison (QB34) a bit ahead of his market value (QB40). Then the DUI incident happened, which led me to lower my expectations a bit -- back down to his WR40 ADP. Of course, as the dust settles, his market value will likely decline as well.

Rashee Rice is also dealing with off-season issues... multiple ones, in fact. Time will tell, but there is a very good chance that he is staring at a league suspension. How long that potential suspension will be and when it will start is anybody's guess. From a purely production standpoint, Rice performed admirably as a rookie is 2023 with 938 yards and 7 TDs, finishing as the 28th WR in fantasy scoring. Looking closer, while he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game over the course of the season, he surged post-Week 6, averaging 12.1 points and ranking within the top 20. Prior to his legal problems, I would have placed him in consideration as a WR2 heading into the season. However, aside from his legal issues, concerns arise due to increased competition from additions like Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, which could impact his healthy 19% target share in 2023.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is not dealing with off-the-field issues like Addison and Rice are, and with Geno Smith set to return at QB, he is also not dealing with an unsettled QB situation as Addison is. So it may be a bit much for me to mention him in the same breath as Addison and Rice. However, while Addison and Rice both finished as borderline WR2 in fantasy last season, JSN was more of a WR4/5: 63 receptions for 628 yards and 4 touchdowns. What I do like, though, is that he managed to see 93 targets, which is a solid number for a rookie receiver. And I expect those numbers to go up in 2024. Despite a slow start due to a wrist injury, JSN began to find his rhythm from Week 6 onwards, averaging 8.2 points per game. With more opportunities ahead in 2024, JSN is poised as a breakout candidate for the Seahawks with Pete Carrol gone and new OC Ryan Grubb implementing a pass-happier offense.

Tier Four

Josh Downs, Demario Douglas, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Jr., Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks

These guys are all late-draft fliers that should be viewed as bench candidates.

Josh Downs had a promising rookie season with the Colts, showcasing his skills with 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards. Despite his strong performance, Downs struggled to find the end zone, recording only two touchdowns. However, his production dipped after sustaining a knee injury, impacting his performance in the latter part of the season. Nonetheless, Downs displayed potential from Weeks 1-8, leading the Colts in yards per route run and maintaining a solid 19% target share.

Demario Douglas emerged as a surprise contributor for the Patriots in 2023, showcasing his playmaking ability despite failing to find the end zone. Leading the team with 561 receiving yards without a touchdown, he demonstrated consistent involvement in the passing game with an 18% target share. From Week 7 onwards, Douglas maintained a significant role, posting a 21% target share and earning praise for his performance. However, the Patriots' decision to draft two wide receivers this year introduces competition, potentially impacting Douglas's role in the offense moving forward.

Quentin Johnston's rookie season left much to be desired, with disappointing production. Despite the Chargers' off-season moves opening up opportunities, including the departure of key receivers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams), Johnston failed to capitalize on his chances. With Ladd McConkey drafted early, Johnston's future role in the offense becomes uncertain. While it may be premature to label him a bust after just one season, his lack of impact in Year 1 (61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run) raises red flags for his fantasy value moving forward.

I like Marvin Mims Jr. as a sleeper receiver thanks to his rare speed. With Jerry Jeudy gone, Mims will compete for playing time this preseason with the Broncos. Though Mims found the end zone just once as a rookie, he did manage to rack up at least 16 receiving yards on eight of his 22 receptions. That kind of efficiency will get him noticed in Denver, where there's fierce competition expected for all of their receiving roles this preseason. View Mims as a late-round pick in all kinds of leagues, but especially in Best Ball formats.

Expect Michael Wilson to compete for a decent target share this season with the Cardinals. He notched at least six targets in five of 13 games as a rookie last year but managed 14-plus PPR points just twice. The team's addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. at receiver is a lock to impact Wilson's contributions, making him more of a low-end bench player in deeper redraft leagues, even though he offers some size to the Cardinals receiving game. Expect him to get taken in the final rounds of fantasy drafts, and probably only in deeper full-PPR leagues.

Dontayvion Wicks made significant contributions to the Packers' offense during Christian Watson's absence, showcasing his big-play ability and reliability as a target. With 39 receptions for 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, Wicks demonstrated his potential to be a valuable asset in the passing game. Despite being a fifth-round rookie, he ranked among the top rookies in yards per route run, hinting at his promising future. I have already mentioned my high expectations for Jordan Love, so I see Wicks as something of a deep sleeper. Depending on how involved he will be in the offense (and Watson's availability), Wicks has the opportunity to emerge as a key playmaker in the Packers' ascending offense.

Hail Mary

Jonathan Mingo, Andrei Iosivas, Jalin Hyatt

None of these guys are draftable -- but all are worthy of keeping an eye on post-draft.

Rumor has it that the Panthers selected Jonathan Mingo in the 2023 draft after owner David Tepper asked former star Steve Smith Sr. which receiver he preferred. So even though the 2024 version of the Panthers open with a new regime -- after moving on from Frank Reich and hiring Dave Canales this offseason -- Mingo is unlikely to be viewed as a product of the prior regime, given the owner's rumored involvement in his drafting. Mingo will have a chance to develop his game and earn snaps after playing his best football as a rookie in the second half, but he'll have a tough time earning targets with the team using a first-round pick on Xavier Legette and trading for Diontae Johnson, as well as Adam Thielen returning. You can ignore him in most fantasy drafts -- other than deep-rostered leagues -- but keep an eye on him heading into the NFL season.

OK, I will admit it: I was off on my prediction that Jalin Hyatt would make an impact as a rookie in 2023. This year I am not even drafting Hyatt in redraft leagues and I'm not sure he'll earn a starting role in Year 2 with Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton ahead of him. The good for Hyatt last year was his 109-yard outburst against the Patriots, his 16.2 yards per catch, and his 9.3 yards per target. But those efficiency stats were muted by the fact that the Patriots game was the only one all season where he earned more than five targets. I am more interested in stashing the 22-year-old in Dynasty leagues. He could be a Best Ball specialist in the right offense due to his big-play ability and blazing speed.

Andrei Iosivas strikes some curiosity for me -- especially in light of the fact that Tee Higgins remains unhappy (though he signed his one-year Franchise tag). Iosivas will compete with rookie Jermaine Burton to be the No. 3 receiver for the Bengals this season, and Iosivas could be worth a late-round pick in all leagues. Most likely, Iosivas will be No. 4 on the depth chart behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Burton, but Iosivas might surprise Fantasy managers this season if given a big role. In 2023, Iosivas didn't do much until Week 18 when he had five catches for 36 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. There are 98 targets vacated with Tyler Boyd gone, and that could help Iosivas. However, the addition of Burton is a negative, and if Higgins remains motivated, then targets might be hard to come by. At best, Iosivas could be someone to add off the waiver wire during the season if he starts off playing well right away.